Bill Meehan
Bill Meehan
William Thomas Meehanwas an American Major League Baseballpitcher. He played for the Philadelphia Athletics during the 1915 season...
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There is not enough earnings and/or revenue growth to justify valuations in a lot of the technology stocks and there is a great amount of fear that analysts will be slashing away at their earnings estimates for next year.
fear
There's not enough fear and there was too much hope.
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We're getting closer to the earnings period, and the bulls are hoping that the actual quarterly results will be in line or better than expected and alleviate the fears that there's another warning coming in every night.
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Everybody knows the Fed is going to lower rates. You'll start hearing people talk about more than a 50-basis-point (a half-percentage-point) rate cut -- that wouldn't shock me.
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Contrary to logic, people were hoping the Fed would change their bias to a neutral stance. Part of the exuberance earlier was an increased appreciation of the likelihood that we would have a president-elect before the market opens on Monday.
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People expected that Asia was pretty much over, and things would get better over the better part of the year. Now, that's called into question here, and technology is a pariah now. And I think there's probably some more downside, near-term, for technology.
saying
Saying the right thing and doing the right thing are different.
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People that are overexposed in tech should rethink the thesis that many seem to hold that since stocks are down (significantly), they are going to shoot to the sky. Last year was an anomaly.
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As we reach the end of the quarter, there's increasing optimism that the damage is done. We saw the beginning stages of the fact that when the economy slows, there are no sectors that go unscathed.
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There was too much hope built up that the Fed was going to cut by more than 50 basis points. We had a rally in anticipation of Fed action but we are in a bear market. The hopes and prayers of the bulls was totally on the shoulders of the Fed.
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It's a pattern that's repeated virtually every day. At least today there was a reason to open higher. This is not a good sign that every analyst was out pumping up their favorite tech stocks and here's the result.
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A lot of air has come out of the Internet stocks, but we have to put it into perspective, some of these stocks are up 1,500 percent or so in the matter of a couple of years. I think there is more downside.
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A lot of people have turned much more optimistic that once the blue chips get hit, that indicates the bear market is dead. Valuations are down, but they're still not cheap.
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We're going to be winding down (earnings) and more focus will be turning toward the presidential election. However, there's not much one can do since the race appears too tight to call. On a poll-by-poll basis, you could see drug stocks impacted negatively or positively, with tobacco stocks and defense stocks similarly impacted.