Barry Ritholtz
Barry Ritholtz
Barry Ritholtz is an American author, newspaper columnist, blogger, equities analyst, CIO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, and guest commentator on Bloomberg Television. He is also a former contributor to CNBC and TheStreet.com...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionAuthor
CountryUnited States of America
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Earnings have been coming in across the board pretty good, but the problem hasn't been earnings. The issue is the forward-looking statements for the fourth quarter or 2006. Despite good numbers, you see some stocks getting punished. It's a function of the outlook.
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Tech stocks are probably a little pricey. But they're not stupid pricey.
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Truth be told, most financial television bores me. Two or more people discussing the latest economic trends or hot stocks is not especially entertaining.
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Outcome is simply the final score: Who won the game; what numbers came up in a roll of the dice; how high did a stock go. Outcome is the result, regardless of the method used to achieve it. It is not controllable.
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Here is a dirty little secret: Stock-picking is wildly overrated. Sure, it makes for great cocktail party chatter, and what is more fun than delving into a company's new products? But the truth is that individual stocks are riskier than broad indices.
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To know whether stocks are cheap or pricey, we typically look at price-to-earnings ratio. Valuation is a tougher question than many folks realize.
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Most of the time, economic data is fairly benign. I don't wish to imply it is meaningless, but it is not a driver of stock markets. Indeed, the correlation between economic noise and how equity markets perform has been wildly overemphasized.
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Whenever you try to pick market tops and bottoms, you are making a prediction. Guessing what stock is going to outperform the market is forecasting, as is selling a stock for no apparent reason. Indeed, nearly all capital decisions made by most people are unconscious predictions.
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The big issue is decelerating earnings growth. Earnings will still be higher but the ideal time to buy stocks is when earnings go from awful to not so bad as opposed to going from great to good.
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Stock valuations have been stretched, everyone knows a rate hike is coming and great earnings are already baked into the stock market, so you're seeing this churning, and unfortunately, I would expect it to continue for the next few weeks.
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We were in this post-election trading range from November to April, and that broke down, ... The bull market has at least one more major run in it, but I think it's probably going to be sometime over the summer, when stocks get appreciably cheaper.
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The data strongly suggest that very good years in the U.S. stock market are followed by more good years.
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If tech stocks keep going up with no pause, they will get insanely frothy.
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He will be dealing with a combination of a slowing economy, inflation pressures and a tumultuous stock market.