Avery Shenfeld
Avery Shenfeld
bank canada canadian fed felt force fuel hikes markets press providing rate
If markets felt the Bank of Canada was going to press on with rate hikes after the Fed stopped, that could fuel an overheated Canadian dollar, providing too much of a braking force on exports.
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If, as we expect, the economy were to show signs of a slowing by May, the Fed will want to give it the benefit of the doubt by standing pat at that point.
fed leave statement
Look for the Fed to leave its poker-face statement unchanged.
although benefit case core doubt economy far fed financial growth higher implies inflation low markets pat pushing rate rates risking signs slowing standing
Although financial markets have confidently priced-in a May rate hike, low core inflation implies that the case for risking growth by pushing rates higher is far from clear. If, as we expect, the economy were to show signs of a slowing by May, the Fed will want to give it the benefit of the doubt by standing pat at that point.
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In Canada, CPI inflation will be everywhere in energy, and nowhere in anything else, mirroring what we saw in the U.S. figures for September.
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The Bank of Canada remains on the warpath against inflation in an economy where recent job and production gains are, in its view, too much of a good thing.
bells canadian dollar drag economy starting warning
The warning bells are starting to ring, that the drag on manufacturing from the Canadian dollar . . . is starting to show through, now that the U.S. economy is starting to slow.
bank basis canada canadian cooling dollar employment expect factory growth impacts leaving moderation points rate strong work
We expect the combination of a U.S. growth moderation and the lagged impacts of a strong Canadian dollar on factory employment to do a lot of the work in engineering that cooling in Canadian hiring, leaving the Bank of Canada with only another 50 basis points in rate hikes.
continue fairly heavy major positive reports run toronto weight
We've had a run of fairly positive reports out of the major banks, so financials continue to do well and they have a heavy weight in the Toronto index.
again bank canada christmas odds statement ups
Today's statement ups the odds that the Bank of Canada will be back again with a 25 bp (basis point) 'Christmas present' in December.
employment jobs left market payroll prior revision
August's 169,000 jobs gain, coupled with a 44,000 upward revision to the prior two months, left payroll employment just about where the market expected.
confidence creating economy mean people reading reflecting
These confidence surveys are reflecting what people are reading -- that the economy is not creating jobs. It doesn't mean that people are not spending.
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Central banks continue to be guided by macroeconomic models that relate to an economy that no longer exists.
canadian dollar following gas hearts minds move natural oil prices
It's oil and natural gas prices that move the hearts and minds of those following the Canadian dollar these days.