Avery Shenfeld
Avery Shenfeld
claims distant due fallen labor looking market moved past storm underlying
Looking only at 'affected areas' could understate the storm impacts, due to linkages between ports and more distant facilities.... we know that jobless claims have fallen off sharply as we moved past the storm impacts, another hint of underlying labor market vitality.
bank basis canada canadian cooling dollar employment expect factory growth impacts leaving moderation points rate strong work
We expect the combination of a U.S. growth moderation and the lagged impacts of a strong Canadian dollar on factory employment to do a lot of the work in engineering that cooling in Canadian hiring, leaving the Bank of Canada with only another 50 basis points in rate hikes.
confidence creating economy mean people reading reflecting
These confidence surveys are reflecting what people are reading -- that the economy is not creating jobs. It doesn't mean that people are not spending.
again bank canada christmas odds statement ups
Today's statement ups the odds that the Bank of Canada will be back again with a 25 bp (basis point) 'Christmas present' in December.
built confidence equity given home household leverage rising sector
Given all the leverage that the household sector has built up, their confidence in rising home equity has been an important part of their willingness to take on all that (mortgage) debt.
benefit doubt economy fed pat signs slowing standing
If, as we expect, the economy were to show signs of a slowing by May, the Fed will want to give it the benefit of the doubt by standing pat at that point.
banks central continue economy guided longer models relate
Central banks continue to be guided by macroeconomic models that relate to an economy that no longer exists.
events mask month number strength true
This was a month in which a number of one-time events conspired to mask the true strength of the economy.
continue fairly heavy major positive reports run toronto weight
We've had a run of fairly positive reports out of the major banks, so financials continue to do well and they have a heavy weight in the Toronto index.
canadian dollar following gas hearts minds move natural oil prices
It's oil and natural gas prices that move the hearts and minds of those following the Canadian dollar these days.
against bank canada economy good inflation job production recent remains
The Bank of Canada remains on the warpath against inflation in an economy where recent job and production gains are, in its view, too much of a good thing.
bells canadian dollar drag economy starting warning
The warning bells are starting to ring, that the drag on manufacturing from the Canadian dollar . . . is starting to show through, now that the U.S. economy is starting to slow.
economy inflation material potential rate reward risk situation thinking whenever
Whenever you have a situation where inflation is not a material risk and the economy is underperforming, you should be thinking about a rate cut. There's a potential reward and not much risk.
employment jobs left market payroll prior revision
August's 169,000 jobs gain, coupled with a 44,000 upward revision to the prior two months, left payroll employment just about where the market expected.