Art Hogan
Art Hogan
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Fifty-two percent of the households in America are invested in the U.S. stock market and they want to invest in the things that had 70 percent growth last year, ... As long as the money keeps flowing into equity mutual funds and they are targeted toward Nasdaq stocks, we are going to see this go on for a while.
basis exactly percentage point surprises turn volume
There were no surprises and we had already priced in a 50 basis point (half a percentage point) move, ... We didn't exactly turn on the floodgates but we went from anemic volume to trending higher.
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This is not unlike the five percent to 10 percent correction a lot of people were calling for in the beginning of the year. You have an absence of corporate and economic news and clearly people are trying to rationalize valuations.
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I think 50 basis points (one-half percentage point) is a credible consensus estimate for what the Fed does (at its March 20 meeting). Unfortunately, over the last five or six tumultuous trading days, we've talked ourselves into the fact that the Fed cares about equity valuations, but that's not the case.
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The global reaction to this is more of a psychological response than a rational one. People wake up and read whatever wire service they're going to read and realize that one of the major Asian markets was down by up to 6 percent overnight, and there are a number of tech earnings disappointments and it tends to cascade. Eventually you get a more rational response after people have time to come to terms with what is really happening.
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The market was up 5 percent and then the Fed gave us this gift.
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We expected it to happen by the end of the year, certainly not in the first quarter. The last thousand points have really been at breakneck speed.
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We're going through a very news intensive period this week and the focus of all of that is slowdown of revenue growth going forward, but we're probably overreacting, ... We get great numbers, but looking forward we don't have the robust growth -- so people are calling into question valuations.
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The season started upbeat and that was terrific. That helps the overall consensus that the second quarter (reports) will be rosier.
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The second quarter is lining up to be another good quarter but people are looking ahead to the third and fourth quarters. Barring any major upsets on the earnings calendar I'd say the market is pretty range bound.
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The whole issue goes a long way in showing how dangerous an investment the sector is, ... You can have one regulatory setback, one clinical trial or negative development for a drug, and you see this kind of impact.
beginning ideas
The winnowing down of ideas is beginning to happen.
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These are terrific numbers, absolutely great, a much needed breath of fresh air for the equities market.
meeting rhetoric
The rhetoric from the meeting will be the most important catalyst,