Art Hogan

Art Hogan
acts again attract bond concerns higher interest markets money note rates side south stocks tax yield
Concerns about higher interest rates and the yield on the 10-year note may keep stocks on the south side again this morning. The higher yield ... acts as a tax on corporations, and it may also attract money to the bond markets from equities.
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It's another piece of the ongoing trend of a slowing economy, ... The credit tightening cycle is nearing an end and we have the equity markets celebrating that.
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There's a lot of trepidation out there about earnings, ... A lot of times, the complexion of markets is what the household names are doing. A couple of weeks ago it was about IBM ( Research ) and Apple ( Research ). Today, it looks like the focus is on Amazon, and that can shape the market -- at least in the early going.
markets trading
The way the markets have been trading this year,
argue education investors markets
Cleary this had been a disappointing first half. But I would argue that long-term investors need this kind of an education to show them that markets don't go up forever.
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The global reaction to this is more of a psychological response than a rational one. People wake up and read whatever wire service they're going to read and realize that one of the major Asian markets was down by up to 6 percent overnight, and there are a number of tech earnings disappointments and it tends to cascade. Eventually you get a more rational response after people have time to come to terms with what is really happening.
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The equities markets are very forward pricing mechanisms so the (corporate) news you're hearing has been priced into the market, for the most part. The news that you should focus on is what will be suggested in the commentary that comes out because we're trying to invest for fourth-quarter growth.
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The markets are hanging on nicely, considering the massive gains yesterday, ... Clearly, if the market can hold onto its gains from yesterday, and through the weak durable goods report today, the path of least resistance is upside.
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We expected it to happen by the end of the year, certainly not in the first quarter. The last thousand points have really been at breakneck speed.
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We're going through a very news intensive period this week and the focus of all of that is slowdown of revenue growth going forward, but we're probably overreacting, ... We get great numbers, but looking forward we don't have the robust growth -- so people are calling into question valuations.
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The season started upbeat and that was terrific. That helps the overall consensus that the second quarter (reports) will be rosier.
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The second quarter is lining up to be another good quarter but people are looking ahead to the third and fourth quarters. Barring any major upsets on the earnings calendar I'd say the market is pretty range bound.
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The whole issue goes a long way in showing how dangerous an investment the sector is, ... You can have one regulatory setback, one clinical trial or negative development for a drug, and you see this kind of impact.
beginning ideas
The winnowing down of ideas is beginning to happen.