Art Hogan
Art Hogan
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The second quarter is lining up to be another good quarter but people are looking ahead to the third and fourth quarters. Barring any major upsets on the earnings calendar I'd say the market is pretty range bound.
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We have extremely large concerns about inflation, high interest rates and high energy prices, ... There is great concern that we don't know how much earnings growth will decelerate over the next two quarters.
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We need a significant catalyst. Whether it be great second-quarter earnings or blowout economic data or some marquee firms coming out with a mid-second-quarter preview.
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With declines three days in a row, you know it must be earnings season,
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Unfortunately, everyone else is guilty by association with Procter missing (its earnings estimates), and everyone worries about who else in the Dow will miss, ... I think it's a clear sign of investors' overreaction.
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The biggest fear is earnings going forward, ... All the consumer non-durable multinationals are going to have to warn about the ill effects of the strong dollar versus the weak euro, but that's cyclical.
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It's earnings pre-reporting season, ... I'm guessing that a lot of the worst is behind us is going to come out in commentary. Unfortunately it is going to follow numbers that are just as bad as the first quarter.
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We've sort of gotten through the meat of earnings season, and we're going to start focusing on the state of the economy.
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We've shifted focus here. It's been earnings, earnings, earnings all week, now its the economic reports, ... Unfortunately, it's a mixed bag and the biggest surprise was the GDP reading.
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We have just digested so much news in the last week or so, ... Fourth-quarter earnings have been much better than expected, but you have people reluctant to make big bets ahead of things like the payroll report Friday, or the G7 meeting, which will be important for the dollar.
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The price of oil is acting as a natural drag on the U.S. economy and the global economy. It creates a great deal of investor uncertainty, ... as earnings reports start coming in, it's going to be what companies tell us about the next three quarters that determines if investors get off the sidelines.
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We've been able to handle a lackluster earnings season so far. Energy companies haven't really come into the fray yet, so things may look a little better after they report. Another positive is that we're backing off a bit from the high price of oil.
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We're seeing better earnings news in corporate America. That's what the market is celebrating, ... We made major collateral damage to stocks in the last six weeks and over a larger 2-1/2-year period. What's happening now is that the market is bottoming out and is building a higher support base in the process.
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We're seeing a nice handful of earnings today. That is going to be the driver. The other driver, or the thing that's not going to hold us back this quarter, and I would argue has held us back the last three quarters, is the consensus is the Fed is done for the year, ... We don't have a credit tightening cycle to go through and we're seeing terrific earnings. So I would argue that the focus returns now to earnings growth, revenue growth, the strength of corporate America and not necessarily the macro-economic themes like monetary policy which have been on the forefront for the last couple of quarters.