Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
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What's different this time is that there is a lot more stimulus now than any time in the past 50 or 60 years. I've never seen a period with so much help from both the fiscal and monetary side.
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There is a lot of pain, and if anything these statistics are understating the pain, ... At the same time the economy is showing some potential signs of improvement, you're not finding a lot of firms offering jobs.
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It really tells us the economy is healthy, and at the same time we don't see that labor markets are overheating at an accelerating pace.
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There doesn't seem to be any real urgency for firms to start hiring, precisely at a time we're seeing a reemergence of people becoming interested in looking for a job, ... Put the two together, and you have a formula for higher unemployment.
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I think the markets probably overreacted when the Federal Reserve first moved toward a neutral operating directive. When Alan Greenspan spoke this time, I think the reality set in and that is, yes, the central bank has a neutral directive, but it's more like an ultra-right (hawkish) form of neutral directive. ... Any time they get an excuse to raise rates, they're going to take it.
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They (Fed policy makers) know at any point of the time they may need to administer CPR to this economy.
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Anything that causes people to spend more time thinking about what they do will clearly have an impact on productivity. The good news is this is not a permanent situation -- these things have a way of clearing themselves up. But will it be completely inconsequential? I don't think so.
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Any time you have a situation like this it creates opportunities for companies to clean up their attics, and that means lowering estimates and partly, or completely, attributing it to Katrina.
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You typically see, from the trough of a recession to the time when the recession ends, a 1.3-percent gain in payrolls, ... From when the recession likely ended, in December of last year, we've had 0.004 percent gain, instead of that 1.3 percent gain. There's a pent-up demand for labor, given such a jobless recovery.
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The unemployment number is the one Main Street looks at. This buys the Fed a little more time and allows it to hold true to its word that, until geopolitical risk lifted, no stimulus should be added to economy.
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What the Fed showed was that extraordinary circumstances require an extraordinary strategy. Not only are they moving rates to lows not seen since the early '60s, they're prepared to move them a lot lower.
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We will see more bad news on the employment front. We see unemployment going to 6.1 percent or 6.2 percent before it's over; no way are we going to see that coming down while we're creating so few jobs.
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These claims numbers confirm the notion that things may improve sometime in the future. The fact that we didn't go over 400,000 was very encouraging.
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These results suggest that the current low energy prices should serve as an important and positive boost to overall economic growth.