Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
both fiscal help monetary past period seen stimulus time
What's different this time is that there is a lot more stimulus now than any time in the past 50 or 60 years. I've never seen a period with so much help from both the fiscal and monetary side.
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The number tells me a recession is coming, but it will be relatively mild in the wake of all the stimulus coming. But I would caution investors not to be so complacent as to think this could be bottom. It's going to be a lot uglier in the fourth quarter.
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There's a very good likelihood we'll see the sector come back as rebuilding takes place and the economy starts to react to the huge stimulus in the pipeline.
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In view of the stimulus already out there, I think the Fed will finish out the year by raising rates until the end.
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All this stimulus is going to work, ... just not overnight. It's probably going to take a couple of quarters to work itself out.
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The unemployment number is the one Main Street looks at. This buys the Fed a little more time and allows it to hold true to its word that, until geopolitical risk lifted, no stimulus should be added to economy.
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What the Fed showed was that extraordinary circumstances require an extraordinary strategy. Not only are they moving rates to lows not seen since the early '60s, they're prepared to move them a lot lower.
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We will see more bad news on the employment front. We see unemployment going to 6.1 percent or 6.2 percent before it's over; no way are we going to see that coming down while we're creating so few jobs.
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These claims numbers confirm the notion that things may improve sometime in the future. The fact that we didn't go over 400,000 was very encouraging.
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These results suggest that the current low energy prices should serve as an important and positive boost to overall economic growth.
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The stock market didn't want the economy to grow too quickly because they were worried about aggressive rate hikes, ... They wanted the Goldilocks approach where everything was just right. But now they realize that maybe the porridge is a bit too cold for their taste.
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The small improvement in labor market conditions, despite the continued risks that remain on this front, do suggest that even with all the caveats that Greenspan echoed in his latest testimony ... the Fed might be inclined to move towards a neutral risk bias.
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The significant number of headwinds such as rising energy prices and the prospects of rising short-term rates are taking their toll on the economy,
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I still don't think they'll lower rates, but this tells me they're prepared to lower them at the first sign of trouble.