Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
ahead fear gain labor markets monetary policy rate release report rise robust sting takes
The rise in the unemployment rate takes much of the sting away from the robust gain in payrolls from a monetary policy perspective. The big fear ahead of the release of this report was that labor markets were overheating.
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Weaker consumer confidence threatens to reverse the course of the recovery. That's why policy makers will be so cautious. They don't really have to worry about the economy's fundamentals, but they do have to worry about confidence.
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Given our forecast, we do not expect that this statistical release will have much impact on the policy debate when the Fed meets,
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Policy makers make policy on long-term trends, ... This is temporary. Labor costs will eventually come down.
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This report should soothe the fears of monetary policy-makers who are trying to adjust policy to prevent the economy from overheating.
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The CPI report was very tame. It sort of reflects the comments by Alan Greenspan that even though monetary policy is way too expansive right now, inflation is sufficiently a non-event, a non-problem, so the Fed obviously can wait at this point,
far makers policy remain
We're still far from deflation, but not far from a deceleration in inflation, and that's why policy makers have to remain vigilant.
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Although it's not particularly good news for the housing market, the fact that you're seeing weakness here shows that monetary policy is working and the (Fed) would not have to blunt the economy with more hikes than the market has been anticipating.
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They (Fed policy makers) know at any point of the time they may need to administer CPR to this economy.
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The much weaker-than-expected rise in payrolls truly confirms the cautious demeanor expressed by various Federal Reserve policy officials.
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This is clearly a non-threatening report for investors and policy makers alike. Labor market conditions appear to be tepid enough to justify less rather than more Fed rate hikes while wage pressures did not spoil the party.
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What the Fed showed was that extraordinary circumstances require an extraordinary strategy. Not only are they moving rates to lows not seen since the early '60s, they're prepared to move them a lot lower.
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We will see more bad news on the employment front. We see unemployment going to 6.1 percent or 6.2 percent before it's over; no way are we going to see that coming down while we're creating so few jobs.
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These claims numbers confirm the notion that things may improve sometime in the future. The fact that we didn't go over 400,000 was very encouraging.