Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
activity bit economic euphoric given january loss momentum month reflects underlying
It reflects some loss of momentum from January. Activity in January was a bit too euphoric given the underlying economic fundamentals. This month is more realistic.
economic expansion job losses normal signs transition until
While job losses may be ebbing, we have yet to see any signs of outsized hiring. This will not come ... until we transition from a slow-growing expansion to a normal economic recovery.
bigger decide downward government hit huge hurricane itself job last losses month revision trip whether
There's a huge hurricane hangover. I think the government will have to trip over itself to decide whether to have a huge downward revision to last month or whether the job losses will take a bigger hit this month.
declining deficit economic growth loss slight
A declining deficit may be signaling a slight loss of economic growth momentum.
arising gains loss month possible reflective sector service sure temporary trend truly wait
We may want to wait for another month or so to be sure that such gains were truly reflective of a upward trend and not just a possible distortion arising from the temporary 'hurricane-related' loss of many lower-paying service sector jobs,
affected jobs loss
The GDP doesn't take into consideration loss of wealth, ... It's affected by jobs and productivity.
circumstance early fed lows move moving prepared rates require seen since
What the Fed showed was that extraordinary circumstances require an extraordinary strategy. Not only are they moving rates to lows not seen since the early '60s, they're prepared to move them a lot lower.
bad coming creating employment few news percent
We will see more bad news on the employment front. We see unemployment going to 6.1 percent or 6.2 percent before it's over; no way are we going to see that coming down while we're creating so few jobs.
claims confirm fact improve notion numbers sometime
These claims numbers confirm the notion that things may improve sometime in the future. The fact that we didn't go over 400,000 was very encouraging.
boost current economic energy low overall positive prices results serve suggest
These results suggest that the current low energy prices should serve as an important and positive boost to overall economic growth.
aggressive approach bit cold economy grow market maybe quickly rate realize stock worried
The stock market didn't want the economy to grow too quickly because they were worried about aggressive rate hikes, ... They wanted the Goldilocks approach where everything was just right. But now they realize that maybe the porridge is a bit too cold for their taste.
continued despite fed greenspan improvement inclined labor latest market might move neutral remain risks small suggest testimony towards
The small improvement in labor market conditions, despite the continued risks that remain on this front, do suggest that even with all the caveats that Greenspan echoed in his latest testimony ... the Fed might be inclined to move towards a neutral risk bias.
energy number prices prospects rates rising taking toll
The significant number of headwinds such as rising energy prices and the prospects of rising short-term rates are taking their toll on the economy,
lower prepared sign tells
I still don't think they'll lower rates, but this tells me they're prepared to lower them at the first sign of trouble.