Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
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This report should soothe the fears of monetary policy-makers who are trying to adjust policy to prevent the economy from overheating.
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This report kind of confirms the market's fears that the economy is limping around on just one foot. At same time, I don't think this report is telling us we're moving toward a recession.
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This confirms fears that the economy was growing slowly, but it doesn't absolutely mean we are headed for a double-dip recession.
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I think there were some significant fears that the CPI could come in above 0.2 percent. Given what we read in the Federal Reserve minutes, there was no room for error on core in the eyes of the market.
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That's a great number that basically calms a lot of the fears out there.
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The fears we had that growth was pretty soft and fungible are basically coming out; that's what the data are showing.
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What the Fed showed was that extraordinary circumstances require an extraordinary strategy. Not only are they moving rates to lows not seen since the early '60s, they're prepared to move them a lot lower.
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We will see more bad news on the employment front. We see unemployment going to 6.1 percent or 6.2 percent before it's over; no way are we going to see that coming down while we're creating so few jobs.
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These claims numbers confirm the notion that things may improve sometime in the future. The fact that we didn't go over 400,000 was very encouraging.
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These results suggest that the current low energy prices should serve as an important and positive boost to overall economic growth.
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The stock market didn't want the economy to grow too quickly because they were worried about aggressive rate hikes, ... They wanted the Goldilocks approach where everything was just right. But now they realize that maybe the porridge is a bit too cold for their taste.
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The small improvement in labor market conditions, despite the continued risks that remain on this front, do suggest that even with all the caveats that Greenspan echoed in his latest testimony ... the Fed might be inclined to move towards a neutral risk bias.
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The significant number of headwinds such as rising energy prices and the prospects of rising short-term rates are taking their toll on the economy,
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I still don't think they'll lower rates, but this tells me they're prepared to lower them at the first sign of trouble.