Andy Xie
Andy Xie
Andy Xieis an independent economist based in Shanghai, and the former Morgan Stanley star chief Asia-Pacific economist famous for his contrarian and provocative views. He left Morgan Stanley abruptly in October 2006 when an internal email that he penned was leaked. He derided Singapore as a money laundering centre for Indonesia, and the ASEAN group of nations as a failure...
adjustment decline either percent prices property recession several slow
Either you have a big adjustment like a 20 percent or 30 percent decline, or you have a big recession or you have a slow decline in property prices or several years of no growth.
engaging far likely market oil price prices traders until
The answer, I believe, is that there are too many oil traders engaging in oil price speculation. They will likely keep prices up until an oil market collapse. That day is not too far away, I believe,
built capacity china commodity cost inside massive pressure price processing vulnerable
China has built up massive capacity for processing commodities. The sunk cost inside China has made it more vulnerable to price squeezing pressure in the commodity market.
bush economic government high moves oil prices threaten
In particular, if another Bush government moves on to Iran, then oil prices would go very high and really threaten China's economic development.
believe demand dependent evidence financial oil prices profits sector strong trading
The financial sector may have become dependent on the trading profits from oil. As evidence accumulates over weakening demand and strong supply, I believe oil prices could collapse,
cannot capacity countries growth increase inflation investment
These countries are still pro-growth. But without investment to increase capacity and keep inflation down, you cannot keep growth going.
balance consumer delicate
There was a delicate balance in consumer confidence. It's tipped over.
currency policy
probably the most appropriate currency policy for China.
delicate doubt growth oil question strongest
There's no question that oil is the strongest headwind for growth now. This is a very delicate moment, no doubt about it.
continuing export free prevent remains rumble seems trade
If only the world remains wedded to free trade, there seems to be nothing to prevent China's export juggernaut from continuing to rumble on.
cabin difficult effect enjoy flight frighten kong last london masked meal mostly passengers people percent rate return three waiters
I experienced the effect firsthand on my return flight from London to Hong Kong last weekend. There were three passengers in my cabin -- a 10 percent occupancy rate at best. Hong Kong's restaurants are mostly empty. It is difficult to enjoy a meal with masked waiters tiptoeing around in silence. If you want to frighten people in Hong Kong, just sneeze.
adjustment believe current dollar
I believe that the current dollar adjustment is cyclical.
agree china countries details difficult highest pin united work
When two countries agree to work together, there's no need to pin down details at the highest level. It's different between China and the United States... because it's difficult for these two countries to work together.
knows
We're going down to the bottom. No one knows where that is.