Allen Sinai
Allen Sinai
fed held march meet next power question rally remember staying views
The staying power of the rally is the question mark. You have to remember the views held by the Fed on March 28 are not necessarily the views held when they meet next on May 10.
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If inflation gets out of hand, the Fed will have to raise interest rates more than is envisioned right now. Oil and energy can do it.
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What we're seeing is aggressive taking out of insurance by the Federal Reserve to make sure we don't have anything like the 1920s or 30s happen.
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I think that Greenspan will rank as one of the most effective and innovative Fed chairman that we have had -- a home-run champion.
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I suspect that on Fed decisions, the president has been very much influenced by Mr. Greenspan. Greenspan and Cheney go back.
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It would have been useful to have had a nomination of a successor prior to Jackson Hole because, in a way, Jackson Hole is a farewell to Chairman Greenspan.
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The sources of weakness probably are temporary. The weakness belies some underlying strength because inventories were drawn down due to strong demand.
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It is causing some imported goods prices, which were falling a lot a year ago, now to start rising and this is outside of oil and energy. That's just one more ingredient that says there's more risks that inflation will go higher than lower.
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From the equity point of view, things are absolutely superb. You need a magnifying glass to find something wrong with the economy.
price stability
I don't think we have price stability any more.
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With oil on the rise, we're in danger of a dark cloud moving over the market in the near term.
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When the growth rate is high, the pie is bigger and everybody gains. If the pie grows more slowly, everybody loses.
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We have a lot of wood to chop before the equity market can get out of its grand funk. And you know, actually my concern is we're going to test the old lows.
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Those with an academic approach bring really quite a keen mind to the party but not necessarily an awareness of the reality of the markets and economic activity.