Alfred Kugel
Alfred Kugel
fed january looks might raise rates
Now it looks like the Fed might raise rates at the January meeting, and that might be it.
capacity china current economic environment huge inflation labor plenty production seems unlikely
Inflation seems very unlikely to me in the current economic environment. We have huge amounts of production capacity and plenty of labor around the world, especially in China and India.
afraid friends-or-friendship woods
I'm afraid we're not out the woods yet with our friends at the Fed.
breakup decline last negative positive removal stocks tech threat
This was a big psychological negative and I think it was one of those things that triggered off the decline in tech stocks last summer. So the removal of the threat of breakup is a positive psychological thing.
coming earnings percent
Earnings are coming in 'in line' with expectations. We should still be up 15 percent year-over-year and that's better than we did in the first half.
concerns immediate moment
At the moment there are no concerns on the immediate horizon.
changed market psychology
This changed the whole psychology of the market from one of disappointment to one of optimism.
market overdone performed stocks tech technology year
You really have a two-tier market with tech stocks going down and everything else going up. Part of this is because valuations in technology stocks got overdone this year and, at the same time, the Dow hadn't performed and now they look cheap.
cut fed guess market next path perverse report weak
I would guess this will be another weak report and that, I think, will keep the Fed on its path of easing, ... In a perverse way, the market will like it because they'll think the Fed will make another cut at the next FOMC meeting.
coming companies earnings financial flat people strong trend worried yield
People were worried the financial companies wouldn't have a strong earnings trend because of the flat yield curve, but now it's been flat for a while, and the earnings are still coming through.
durable economic since
Since we don't have a lot of economic data, the most important will be durable goods.
bad higher news percent rally turn year
There's a lot of bad news priced into the market. If things turn out not to be as bad as discounted, we will have a rally this summer, and we will end the year 10 percent higher than we are now.
bad higher news percent rally turn year
There's a lot of bad news priced into the market, ... If things turn out not to be as bad as discounted, we will have a rally this summer, and we will end the year 10 percent higher than we are now.
bought fund higher large looking losses managers might offset pay prices realize selling situation stocks taxes tech year
They're now looking at a situation where their shareholders are going to see the fund is down for the year but they're going to have to pay taxes on large gains. The managers are selling tech stocks that they might have bought at higher prices to realize losses and offset the gains.