Alfred Kugel
Alfred Kugel
coming earnings percent
Earnings are coming in 'in line' with expectations. We should still be up 15 percent year-over-year and that's better than we did in the first half.
coming companies earnings financial flat people strong trend worried yield
People were worried the financial companies wouldn't have a strong earnings trend because of the flat yield curve, but now it's been flat for a while, and the earnings are still coming through.
changed earnings estimates forward inflation interest low market present quite rates ratio relative stock stocks
We've now changed the valuation of the stock market quite a bit, ... If anything, the earnings estimates have been going up and stocks have been going down. The price-to-earnings ratio on forward earnings is now down to about 15 times, which is very low relative to interest rates and inflation at the present time.
bad beating drums earnings energy helped higher market quite worrying
have been beating the drums about worrying about higher inflation, and so far, other than energy, we haven't had higher inflation. (But) I would say earnings are doing quite well, so I think that's helped to keep the market from having another bad week.
economy inflation numbers rising slowing worried
Some of the things that worried people, that the economy was slowing too much, that inflation was rising too much, have been assuaged here by the numbers we got this morning.
cut fed guess market next path perverse report weak
I would guess this will be another weak report and that, I think, will keep the Fed on its path of easing, ... In a perverse way, the market will like it because they'll think the Fed will make another cut at the next FOMC meeting.
couple cross currents difficult fact fed inflation investors next people pick policy proper slowing
We have a lot of cross currents right now and so it's very difficult for investors to pick out the proper path. People like myself think that things are in fact slowing down some, that inflation is not a significant problem, and that while the Fed may tighten policy once in the next couple of months, they really probably don't need to.
bet farm money putting stocks
You don't bet the farm but you need to be putting some money in as you find stocks that look attractive.
afraid friends-or-friendship woods
I'm afraid we're not out the woods yet with our friends at the Fed.
capacity china current economic environment huge inflation labor plenty production seems unlikely
Inflation seems very unlikely to me in the current economic environment. We have huge amounts of production capacity and plenty of labor around the world, especially in China and India.
concerns immediate moment
At the moment there are no concerns on the immediate horizon.
breakup decline last negative positive removal stocks tech threat
This was a big psychological negative and I think it was one of those things that triggered off the decline in tech stocks last summer. So the removal of the threat of breakup is a positive psychological thing.
changed market psychology
This changed the whole psychology of the market from one of disappointment to one of optimism.
bad higher news percent rally turn year
There's a lot of bad news priced into the market. If things turn out not to be as bad as discounted, we will have a rally this summer, and we will end the year 10 percent higher than we are now.