Al Goldman
Al Goldman
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Drug companies are being hit by the Merck trial. But since their valuations are still cheap, we might see a sharp rebound in their stock prices soon.
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Earlier this year, home-builder stocks were going up like Superman. Today's drop in the home sales report provided a good excuse for managers to finally sell those stocks and lock in some profits.
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Everybody knows that the economy is going to do better sometime, that the stock market will recover sometime. It's a question of when you are ready to make a bet.
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There's only one reason to buy stocks and that is to participate in a company's growth of earnings and I don't know any sector of the economy that offers superior growth prospects looking out two, three, four, five years than technology and selected Internet stocks. It's been working for 10 years now and I'm not going to buck a trend like that. You buy dips. We had one heck of a dip that reached a crescendo last week and people who bought Friday or early Monday have reaped very nice profits.
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You are getting some long-overdue profit taking in the technology sector, and the cyclical stocks are having their day in the sun.
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IBM ( IBM : Research , Estimates ) is a very well-managed company, it looks to us like the shares have made a bottom, that the short-term trend is improving, that momentum is improving. And the company has had some disappointing comments to make. But that's already in the price of the stock. And the stock is down some 40-ish percent from its high, and very well managed.
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Pfizer's a great company, great track record. The economy is slowing, so I think money is going to see defensive growth stocks like the pharmaceuticals and I really don't care what Al Gore thinks about supposedly big drug companies. We're going to have gridlock in Washington and there's not going to be any radical legislation no matter who is in the White House.
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Two emotions rule the stock market ? one is greed and one is fear. In March 2000, greed was extreme, the market was at record highs and people were yelling 'where has this gain been all my life?' But by February, early March of this year (2001), fear had reached a an extremely high level, reaching a crescendo on March 22.
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When bull markets and economies start putting on some age, the bigger-name defensive growth stocks get more attention.
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The performance of the major stock averages didn't make anyone happy in 2005. But when you consider what the markets had to contend with, treading water is not so bad.
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The futures are flat this morning. We've had eight days of a good rally. The short-term momentum is still up for Wall Street but stocks are looking extended.
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The fundamental news and the inflation news remain quite positive. We had that big six-week rally in October. Stocks at this exact moment just don't seem ready to stop this correction.
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The sector is notorious for over-reacting - both up and down - and now we are getting a little realistic. But I think the buying opportunity is going to be sooner rather than later.
areas market
These are the personalities of a market getting in the areas of a bottom.