Zoltan Pozsar
Zoltan Pozsar
choke consumer housing sails wind
Housing has peaked, and from here it's only downhill. It's going to take some of the wind out of the sails of consumer spending, but it won't choke off consumption.
business capital cash finance goods matches orders plenty remain spending view
There's plenty of cash around to finance capital spending and hiring. It matches well with our view that capital goods orders and business spending will remain strong.
decline due entire january reading weak
Do not read too much into the weak January reading as the entire decline was due to the weather.
above average far few given last months orders outside running weakness widespread
Some see the widespread weakness outside transportation as discouraging. But orders are still running far above average given the last few months of increases.
change pass trajectory
If we see more pass through, more inflation, it could change the trajectory of the economy.
housing peaked
Housing has peaked and from here it's only downhill.
consumer firm grow hiring job market outlook pick remains spending wages
The job market is firm, the outlook for hiring remains firm and hourly wages will pick up. Wages will grow enough to keep consumer spending up.