Toru Umemoto
Toru Umemoto
areas national past seems supporting swing unlike urban voters
Unlike past national elections, it seems swing voters in urban areas are supporting the LDP this time.
auto bad deficit expanding japan risk run sector trade upsetting washington
With the US trade deficit expanding and the American auto sector in pretty bad shape, I don't think Japan would want to run the risk of upsetting Washington these days.
comments expected fed given increases intention pace rates suggest weigh
Fukui's comments have become dovish on rates and suggest he has no intention to tighten immediately. The pace of U.S. rate increases is expected to be much faster, given the comments from Fed officials. This will weigh on the yen.
central concern early harms independence policy raised reduced remarks shift
Politicians' remarks opposing a policy shift have reduced expectations of an early end to the deflation-fighting policy and raised concern over the independence of the central bank. It also harms the government's credibility; It's yen negative.
appearing consequences dollar economic figures hard hurricane indicate negative slide
Negative consequences of the hurricane are appearing in economic indicators and getting hard to ignore. The dollar may slide should more figures indicate economic weakness.
dollar economy fed figures further head job rate reinforce remains robust strong surely view
Strong job figures will surely reinforce the view the U.S. economy remains robust enough for the Fed to head for further rate increases. The dollar will be strong.
certainly fed figures further rate strong
Strong figures will certainly re-ignite expectations of further Fed rate hikes.
bad bank environment fed interest japan likely months raise rates six
We're still in an environment where the Fed is likely to raise interest rates and the Bank of Japan won't for six months at the earliest. The interest-rate differential is likely to widen and that will be bad for the yen.
buying cautious confidence consumer decline driver housing investors key lead loss market worrying
Some investors are worrying about the slowdown in the housing market, a key driver of the U.S. economy. The abrupt slowdown in the housing market could lead to a loss of consumer confidence and a decline in assets, which makes investors cautious about buying the dollar.
elections markets positive pricing victory
Markets have been pricing in Koizumi's victory in the elections. That's positive for the yen.
current level
The dollar/yen could consolidate at the current level for a while.
concerns course dollar hikes imminent last late level possible rate regain strength
The dollar has reversed its course because concerns over an imminent end to the rate hikes have started to diminish. It is possible that the dollar will regain its strength to the level of late last year.
buying deficit difficult dollar economic favorable justify risk until
The current-account deficit is a risk for the dollar. It's difficult to justify buying the dollar until we get some more favorable economic data.
bought coming easing likely market positive time weeks
The end of quantitative easing is not positive for the yen at all, and the market is likely to find out in coming weeks time after having already bought the yen.