Tony Crescenzi
Tony Crescenzi
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While the results of the September jobs report are impressive and seem to suggest that the underlying strength in labor demand has been unaffected by recent events, the strength could well reflect the lagged effects of past strength in the economy and the data therefore provide much less guidance about the future than might seem obvious.
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The new rumor now since the meeting, since they did not act, is that the Fed could conduct an inter-meeting rate change, ... This is something they haven't done since April 1994, but people feel if the payroll report is strong and it's accompanied by a high wage gain, the Fed might move as early as tomorrow.
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The question is -- and this is why the market hasn't reacted too negatively to the durable goods report -- is whether businesses ... will continue to spend given the risks to consumer spending posed by high energy prices.
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I would venture to forecast that if the upcoming payroll report were to post a decline in the vicinity of 200,000 or so, the Fed might lower interest rates as early as this Friday.
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The selling is modest and the market still has resilience to it.
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The signals coming from the bond market are significant and suggest that the anxieties in the markets are likely to dissipate,
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The rhetoric over the fiscal stimulus package heated up this weekend, reducing the likelihood of passage, ... In what may become a famous remark, President Bush said that Congress would 'raise taxes over my dead body.'
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Even Clint Eastwood could not have written a better script that would pit the bulls and the bears against each other over the meaning of today's payroll report, ... The winner, however, may not be known for a while longer since the data is sufficiently murky.
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There's some evidence that they may be shifting away from dollar reserves to other assets to try to diversify their reserves.
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The supply of bonds won't have a large bearing on the yield levels or the structure of the yield curve, ... The influence on interest rates will come more fundamental factors such as inflation expectations, competition for capital and monetary policy.
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Corporate bond investors seem relatively optimistic compared to a few months ago.
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Today's speech...is notable more for Greenspan's change in delivery than change in material,
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The Treasury tends to follow through with changes in new issuance when it forewarns of possible changes,
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The Treasury market has come to grips with the notion that stocks have recovered,