Tony Crescenzi
Tony Crescenzi
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It is conceivable, for example, that the current weakness in stock prices may already reflect the weak earnings news that will be released over the next several weeks and the stock market might unwind some of its excess pessimism,
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Should the job market continue to strengthen, the bond market might become a far less placid place than it has been lately.
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While the results of the September jobs report are impressive and seem to suggest that the underlying strength in labor demand has been unaffected by recent events, the strength could well reflect the lagged effects of past strength in the economy and the data therefore provide much less guidance about the future than might seem obvious.
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The new rumor now since the meeting, since they did not act, is that the Fed could conduct an inter-meeting rate change, ... This is something they haven't done since April 1994, but people feel if the payroll report is strong and it's accompanied by a high wage gain, the Fed might move as early as tomorrow.
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I would venture to forecast that if the upcoming payroll report were to post a decline in the vicinity of 200,000 or so, the Fed might lower interest rates as early as this Friday.
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Greenspan's confidence in the predictive value of gold (as an inflation indicator) might be high enough that, when combined with other critical predictors . . . could push Greenspan to either hawkish words or action,
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The market is of the mind-set that the economy might be poised to rebound, and that will take precedence above all else.
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The selling is modest and the market still has resilience to it.
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The signals coming from the bond market are significant and suggest that the anxieties in the markets are likely to dissipate,
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The rhetoric over the fiscal stimulus package heated up this weekend, reducing the likelihood of passage, ... In what may become a famous remark, President Bush said that Congress would 'raise taxes over my dead body.'
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Even Clint Eastwood could not have written a better script that would pit the bulls and the bears against each other over the meaning of today's payroll report, ... The winner, however, may not be known for a while longer since the data is sufficiently murky.
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There's some evidence that they may be shifting away from dollar reserves to other assets to try to diversify their reserves.
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The supply of bonds won't have a large bearing on the yield levels or the structure of the yield curve, ... The influence on interest rates will come more fundamental factors such as inflation expectations, competition for capital and monetary policy.
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Corporate bond investors seem relatively optimistic compared to a few months ago.