Tony Crescenzi
Tony Crescenzi
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While the results of the September jobs report are impressive and seem to suggest that the underlying strength in labor demand has been unaffected by recent events, the strength could well reflect the lagged effects of past strength in the economy and the data therefore provide much less guidance about the future than might seem obvious.
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I believe the current decline in stocks could have a significant influence on the economy -- and hence, bonds -- if the stock decline is sustained.
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Because of the strong global economy, there is a safety net surrounding the U.S. economy -- so if it begins to slow, it won't slow much because there is tremendous support.
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The productivity advance will also serve as a powerful backstop for the U.S. dollar, as it creates an environment that is good for the rates of return on U.S. assets, especially compared to other countries where both productivity growth and economic growth are lower than in the U.S.,
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The market is of the mind-set that the economy might be poised to rebound, and that will take precedence above all else.
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In light of today's $500 billion wealth loss in the stock market, it is rational to begin thinking about an endgame to the Fed's rate hike phase, ... At the very least, recent developments tell us that the Fed's actions have finally reached a critical breaking point that limits the scope for significant rate hikes going forward.
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The bond market remains quite bearish. The economic news did not change anyone's mind about the Fed raising rates,
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The bidding was quite aggressive. TIPS are well in demand these days.
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The Bank of Japan's feeble 10 basis-point rate cut to 0.15 percent shows the head-in-sand attitude that has led to weak money supply growth and a slow economy.
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The 'new era' economy, wherein strong growth and low inflation have coincided remarkably for several years, appears to be under duress in ways not seen in some time,
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The Fed's beige book contains a little something for both the bull and bear camps but has a marginally negative tone to it,
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The Fed certainly recognizes the importance that the markets are placing on the housing market and could well use it as a means of sending strong signals.
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If oil prices fall, it will help to stimulate economic activity -- the profit outlook will be better and also lower oil would bring down costs, making stocks the better asset class.
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It's an excuse to consolidate recent losses, although it seems highly implausible that federal officials would want to signal their plans, through any channel.