Tom Kloza
Tom Kloza
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In the oil business, you have a lot of good statistics you can sink your teeth into. In natural gas, you have a lot less. It moves much more on the basis of crowd behavior.
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These are markets where overreaction follows overreaction. It's manic or it's depressive. It never gets even. You have the equivalent of a Dow that moves 4,000 or 5,000 points in a month.
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It was the typical bipolar year with more manic stages than depressive stages.
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People should welcome it, but don't get used to it. I don't think we're looking at a return to the prices we saw in 2002 or 2003.
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Most areas of the country will see price increases in gasoline this week.
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It is difficult to look forward to the first 100 or 200 days of 2006 and not conclude that the year will be reminiscent of 2005 with powerful and pronounced updrafts on prices.
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I can tell you traders aren't thrilled by that idea.
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Last year the market was anticipating such an incredible spring they valued the winter gasoline even a bit higher.
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One would wonder what the prices would be if it had actually been cold.
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We're looking at some pretty compelling increases mostly for gasoline, and it's based on worry,
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We will probably see some states this week with retail gasoline prices of $2 a gallon or lower.
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Unfortunately, 2006 is a year where those records are still possibly threatened.
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It's really hard to get a fix on where things are going right now. It's just really volatile. Mostly, though, it's going to be onward and upward.
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It looks like things will go a little higher -- right around $3 a gallon, ... But it's not going to happen at light speed like it did last time with Katrina.