Timothy Ghriskey
Timothy Ghriskey
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The waters remain very muddy in terms of the economy. Friday's payrolls report made the case that the economy still has some life to it, but it's not clear yet whether the slowdown in March was temporary.
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The waters remain very muddy in terms of the economy, ... Friday's payrolls report made the case that the economy still has some life to it, but it's not clear yet whether the slowdown in March was temporary.
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Even if GDP is strong tomorrow, even better than the 6.0 consensus, you may not see a big stock reaction, ... As you saw yesterday, we're in a period where the economy should continue to support the stock gains going forward.
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This seems to be a period where the market is very unsettled. There's really no leadership and that's because there's a lot of uncertainty, not only about the Fed, but in terms of where the economy is going and how that will affect corporations.
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Everyone knows growth slowed in the third quarter, and so for a company like GM to miss is not surprising, considering that it's so reflective of the economy and impacted by oil prices.
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We're into a bit of the summer doldrums. There have been a lot of positive earnings surprises, but the anticipation of that has lifted markets for months, with little proof that the economy is improving enough to justify those earnings. So the mood is more upbeat, but that hasn't translated to higher stock prices.
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The question is when does the economy recover and to what extent does it recover?
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There is still strong underlying demand for financial securities. That, combined with the strength of the economy could carry us to year-end.
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They are saying the economy is going to slow and that there's no inflation but that we still need to raise rates. Investment professionals worry that the Fed will go too far and grind the economy into a recession.
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I'd say the biggest concern right now is certainly oil. The gas pump is squeezing the consumer and the consumer is what has kept the economy going.
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The impression is that corporations are being increasingly cautious in their projections for the first quarter, which is a trend that you've seen for the last few quarters. I think the companies are taking current economic and business conditions and projecting them onto the future earnings, rather than incorporating the impact the improving economy might have on earnings.
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We saw some good numbers come out of GE and UTX, which bodes well for the economy, but I think we're still in this correction.
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These earnings really give analysts confidence that this company and the industry and the metal are well on the road to recovery and the outlook remains strong.
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Earnings have been coming in by-and-large at better-than-expected levels. But a lot of that has been priced in, and so you're seeing some selling on the news. But the profit-taking is short-term. Longer term, we should continue to see strong economic reports that support the rally, and we should start to see analysts' estimates increase for the fourth quarter.