Tim Evans
Tim Evans
consensus continue gold higher strong trend warning year
There is a very strong consensus that gold will continue its trend higher this year and that, in itself, is a warning sign.
perhaps short situation
The situation is not going to get better in the short term. Perhaps it will get worse.
april covering crude draw last oil short since surprise total trigger weekly
Crude oil may have been able to trigger short covering off the surprise 1.3 million-barrel draw from last week, but inventories are still at their second-highest weekly total since April 1999.
begin behind develop employed higher potential push simple strong term turn widely
Profit-taking was the most widely employed term for what (happened Friday), but we see the potential for this simple turn to develop into a much more substantial decline, as the fundamentals behind the push higher were not all that strong to begin with.
came dramatic range surprises within
Everything pretty much came within the range of expectations so there were no dramatic surprises here.
benefit capacity competition consumers
Consumers would benefit from more refinery capacity and more competition in the refinery business.
although boost chilly current expected helped northeast
Current chilly temperatures in the Northeast U.S. also helped boost prices, although these are not expected to last.
demand early february forecast persist physical warm
Warm temperatures now forecast to persist on into early February undercut physical demand for heating fuels.
achieve balance bargain bit bottom drop hunting pick selling side trying
We're really just trying to achieve a little bit of a balance between follow-through selling after Tuesday's big drop and a little bit of bargain hunting on the other side of the ring, trying to pick a bottom here.
appear conditions current electricity last similar year
From the current snapshot, (electricity) conditions look a lot more similar to last year than they appear different.
basically hit levels support
Basically we hit some support levels ... and if it can't go down, it's got to go up.
close fact holding market physical risk shortage
There is nothing close to a physical shortage going on here. Instead, what the market is holding here is a significant, and in fact growing, implied risk premium.
appetite far holding insatiable
There is so far an insatiable appetite for holding more inventory. We're still not recognizing it as a glut.
buy clear consumer hybrids next offer park price steer table three trigger willing
To put that offer on the table for the next three months, it's clear to me that they're willing to steer the price lower, ... They really don't want every U.S. consumer to park their SUV and buy gasoline-electric hybrids -- they don't want to trigger that kind of consumer response.