Steve Fortuna
Steve Fortuna
business consumer europe gateway growth higher lower market markets pc potential rates small
We see Europe as an important market for Gateway with lower PC penetration rates and the potential for higher long-term growth rates in the consumer & small business markets than in the U.S..
base build buying call cautious changed dropped last longer low opportunity relatively shoe stock term understand view
We went out with a call and said that we'd be cautious about buying the stock in the low 30s, because there's another shoe to drop. And in fact, that shoe dropped last night. We now view the story as being relatively clean. And I think they now have a base upon which they can build for the long-term. It's important to understand that the opportunity set for Dell longer term really has not changed very much.
beginning phenomenon quarters rather tough
We do not see this as a one-quarter phenomenon for Apple, but rather as the beginning of many tough quarters ahead.
ahead difficult fall lie victim
could fall victim to the difficult times that lie ahead for the industry.
believe bless company current meet numbers revised third
We believe the company will meet its downwardly revised numbers in the third quarter, as well as bless the current fourth-quarter outlook.
forecast growth line percent puts roughly saw together unit worldwide
IDC saw worldwide unit growth in 3Q of roughly 18.3 percent, while Dataquest saw worldwide unit growth around 15.2 percent. Averaging the two together puts it in the mid-to-high 16 percent range, which is roughly in line with our forecast 17 percent for 3Q.
expecting gross line looks margin quite reasonably revenue top weakness
What I was expecting was a lot of weakness on the gross margin side, but that the revenue line would be reasonably decent. What it looks like here is the whole thing, top to bottom, is going to be quite weak.
good line results
We think these results are good, in line with our expectations, and think we are set up for a good 4Q,
additional base clearly coming company consumer cycle experience fact focus gateway growth itself point problems reinvent related upgrade
We see the upgrade cycle as clearly fatiguing at this point and I think the experience in consumer slowdown and weakness, as is with Gateway and others, but Apple's got some additional problems that are more Apple-specific and are related to the fact that a lot of the growth coming from the installed base is now drying up and the company really has to reinvent itself now and focus on new products.
almost drive expansion expect fourth growth helping margin operating percent quarter quarters recorded revenue second third
We see revenue growth accelerating to almost 16 percent in the second half, helping to drive operating margin expansion from the 4.5 percent recorded in first quarter 2000, and the 5.4 percent that we expect this quarter, to 6.3 percent and 8.2 percent in the third and fourth quarters respectively.
believe best gateway necessary steps taking
While we believe that most of the steps Gateway is taking are necessary and desirable, we do not think that the withdrawal from international markets, especially Europe, is in the company's best long-term interests.
appeal based believe consumers cube few users
We believe that the Cube is too pricey at $1,799 to appeal to consumers in volume, while few professional users are going to opt for the Cube based on its award-winning design.
believe company growth january likely lower miss next opportunity outlook percent sales within
We believe Dell will preannounce a miss for the January quarter, most likely within the next two weeks. We also think the company will use the opportunity to lower next year's sales growth outlook from 20 percent to 15-20 percent,
analyst below current earnings high likelihood management meeting outlook per share street
Also, and very importantly, we think there is a high likelihood that management significantly lowers its earnings per share outlook during its analyst meeting this week, well below the current $1.28 Street consensus.