Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley is a Canadian singer-songwriter associated with the band The Lowest of the Low. Stanley also performs as a solo artist, sometimes in collaboration with violinist Carla MacNeil...
expectation june month numbers pattern strong weak weaker
We've had this pattern of strong month, weak month lately. May numbers were weaker and the expectation is for June numbers to be stronger.
consumer continue continues economy good momentum numbers spending surprise
Consumer spending numbers continue to be very good and manufacturing continues to surprise to the upside, which all suggests the economy has a lot of momentum right now.
beginning gotten moderate numbers others sustained view
The numbers were considerably more moderate than we and others had expected. We have gotten back to pre-hurricane numbers. (But), I don't view this as the beginning of a sustained downturn.
focused investors market next number oil retail sales until
I think the next really big number for the market is next Friday's retail sales figures. Up until Friday, investors are going to be focused on oil prices, the earnings, and to an extent, the election.
data december durable effect flat goods influence less net number offset positive possibly quarter shipments strength
Ironically, with all this strength, the net effect of these data on the fourth-quarter GDP number could be flat or possibly even marginally negative. This is because durable goods inventories were flat, which should more or less offset the positive influence of the stronger-than-anticipated December shipments figures. For first quarter GDP, however, these data are unambiguously positive.
building claims economy large number permits recovery seeing since strength strong
Some of the strength in building permits and claims may be weather-related and so this number probably won't be repeated, but there's been a strong recovery in the index since the hurricanes and by and large we're seeing that in the economy as a whole.
definitely jobs numbers soft stocks
The jobs numbers were definitely on the soft side, and so stocks are down.
calendar data indication move number point poised prior range reaching settling
However, we are reaching a point on the calendar when the data should be settling down and there is no indication that the number of new filers is poised to move back to the 310,000 to 340,000 range that prevailed in 2005 prior to the hurricanes.
clearly consumer depends economy evidence far gas numbers people prices pull risk short slowing stay strong
The economy is clearly strong right now, and that's what these numbers reflect. In the short term, there's a risk people will pull back on spending, but that depends on how long gas prices stay high, and so far there's not much evidence the consumer is slowing down.
absolutely changing crew field numbers picture until weak
The 'economy is weakening' crew will have a field day with this report. But until we see two weak numbers in a row, I am absolutely unconvinced. . . . Disappointed? Definitely. Changing our big picture view? No.
employment key market next number stock
The employment number will be the key for the stock market next week.
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What stock investors probably need to be thinking about now is 'what are profit margins doing?'. A little inflation wouldn't be so bad for the stock market, for Corporate America, but it wouldn't be good for the economy or the consumer.
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We expect productivity growth to moderate, and compensation gains and unit labor costs to pick up. Just another piece of the puzzle that points toward more Fed tightening than the market currently expects.
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The stock market has been pretty stubbornly hewing to the idea that the economy is slowing down and the Fed may stop soon. So to the extent that people perceive the statement as a little more hawkish, it's maybe upsetting.