Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley is a Canadian singer-songwriter associated with the band The Lowest of the Low. Stanley also performs as a solo artist, sometimes in collaboration with violinist Carla MacNeil...
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What stock investors probably need to be thinking about now is 'what are profit margins doing?'. A little inflation wouldn't be so bad for the stock market, for Corporate America, but it wouldn't be good for the economy or the consumer.
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Fed officials have made clear that their heightened inflation concerns are related more to the outlook than the present situation. Thus, inflation fears have intensified even as core measures of prices have been exceedingly well behaved.
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One-year inflation expectations spiked from 3.1 percent to 4.6 percent, by far the highest reading since 1990,
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If inflation doesn't accelerate much from here, and the Fed just raises rates a little more, we might see something like the end of the 1990s again. But if the Fed has to really ramp up to fight inflation, it's going to be a much worse environment than investors realize.
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We still do not look for the core CPI to accelerate rapidly, but it is likely to be persistently firmer going forward. At a minimum, core consumer price inflation will be firm enough to keep the Fed on edge and raising interest rates.
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It is never a happy day for the Fed when GDP is revised down and inflation is revised up.
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The Fed is, if anything, more concerned about inflation than they are about a growth slowdown.
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The economy is still growing at an above trend pace and with slack in labor and product markets all but fully absorbed, inflation pressures will begin to gradually build this year.
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The indicators of prices ... are beginning to point more clearly toward inflation pressures.
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I do not expect to see the Fed let its guard down on inflation any time soon even though the worst fears of energy pass-through have not come to pass.
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We expect productivity growth to moderate, and compensation gains and unit labor costs to pick up. Just another piece of the puzzle that points toward more Fed tightening than the market currently expects.
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The stock market has been pretty stubbornly hewing to the idea that the economy is slowing down and the Fed may stop soon. So to the extent that people perceive the statement as a little more hawkish, it's maybe upsetting.
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The still-massive swing in the pace of stockpiling in the second quarter sets the stage for an explosive third quarter.
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It would represent a bit of a shift from a macroeconomic focus to a banking/regulation focus.