Stephen Gallagher
Stephen Gallagher
Stephen Gallagheris an English writer...
core decrease energy fairly inflation low month next prices rapidly
It's really very good. Core inflation is fairly low and energy prices will decrease rapidly in the next month or two.
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The Fed is worried about pass-through, and even if they don't see it in the September numbers it won't make them feel secure about the future. This will help the markets remain confident that inflation is low but not necessarily convince the Fed.
economic growth healthy inflation interest investors lower maintain rate
Investors maintain a healthy economic growth outlook, but now with lower inflation and interest rate risks.
companies discount due housing lower mild numbers themselves weather
The housing numbers look pretty strong, but we have to discount them due to the mild weather effects. We are getting confirmations from the companies themselves about lower orders.
consumer economy-and-economics employment gains growth healthy income job remain supportive
Employment growth is very healthy for the economy. Job and income gains will remain supportive for consumer activity.
above earlier estimates full likely percentage quarter
Real consumption expenditures will likely be a full percentage above our earlier estimates of 5.0 percent to 5.5 percent. As a result, real GDP in the first quarter is more likely between 5.5 percent and 6.0 percent.
couple economy growth healthy next
We have a very healthy economy with little inflation. We could have this kind of growth for the next couple of years.
businesses deal few great last tolerance
Businesses have been through a lot over the last few years, and many of them don't have a great deal of tolerance for uncertainty.
beginning bottom corporate durable equipment great recovery stronger sure
On the headline, it's a great report, up 5.8 percent. The recovery is under way. But we're also beginning to see a bottom in durable equipment declines, which is important because it's about corporate profits. But we still need that to be stronger to make sure that this recovery is here to stay.
auto due last month rebound sales solid
It's pretty much all due to autos. We got a solid rebound in auto sales last month due to the new discounts put in place in mid-November.
aggressive chance greenspan increase message move today
It may be even more that one (rate hike). If they move once there is always another chance for another one, but I think the message that we got from Greenspan today is that it will not be an aggressive increase in rates.
business consumer seeing strength strong
It's a very strong report. We're seeing a lot of strength in the consumer and business sectors.
changes concerns costs doubt fanning labor moving perspective seen unit view
Unit labor costs moving up is seen as fanning some of the Fed's concerns on inflation, but I doubt from the Fed's perspective that this changes their view very much,
impact increase looking picking reduced seeing underlying
We're seeing a reduced impact from the hurricanes and we're getting back to the underlying norm. We're looking for about an 80,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in October, and it's still picking up.