Shane Oliver
Shane Oliver
bit consistent consumer decline demand economy expect fall pull rate starting
It's consistent with an economy that's starting to pull back up in Korea, with a bit of consumer demand starting to come through again. I would expect the unemployment rate will start to decline and will fall further.
australian close easing fed interest investors likely monetary policy quite rates renewed shifting starting toward widening wonder
U.S. interest rates are pretty close to the top. By year- end it is quite likely the Fed will be shifting toward easing monetary policy and investors will be starting to wonder about a renewed widening in the Australian and U.S. interest-rate gap.
bank central consumer economic fuel interest prices rates rising slowing spending
Rising fuel prices will keep a lid on consumer spending for some time, slowing economic growth. The central bank will keep interest rates on hold.
data economic generally numbers rates recent reserve rise run soft support
Recent economic data has been on the soft side. There is nothing in the recent run of generally soft numbers that would support another rise in rates by the Reserve Bank.
bank benign cheap consumer environment extremely fuel inflation interest items leave plenty prices range rates reasons remain retail slowing spending thanks underlying weak
Slowing housing, weak consumer spending and benign underlying inflation give the bank plenty of reasons to leave interest rates right where they are. Fuel prices are up, but thanks to an extremely competitive retail environment and cheap imports, prices for a whole range of items remain weak.
cheap china environment helping hold inflation interest pricing products rates time underlying
Cheap products from China and a very competitive pricing environment is helping keep underlying inflation in check. Interest rates are on hold for the time being.
bit correction financial globally interest markets possible pressure putting quite rates share
Interest rates globally are putting some pressure on financial stocks. It's quite possible we go through a bit of a correction in share markets around the world.
high households housing interest market petrol pressure rates remains slowing
The housing market remains in the doldrums. With the housing market still slowing and households under pressure from high petrol prices, interest rates will remain on hold.
asian crisis far risk situation
The situation is far healthier. The risk of another Asian crisis is very low.
australian earnings market share strong thanks
So on this basis, and thanks to very strong earnings growth, the Australian share market is still cheap.
cent consensus december growth per profit year
Consensus expectations are for profit growth of 13.4 per cent for the year to the December quarter.
areas consumer exports fill help hole investment left luckily mining plug slowing
We need other areas to fill the hole left by slowing consumer spending. Luckily mining investment and exports are increasing, which will help plug the gap.
decision head knock recovery retail sales seeing slow
Today's decision will slow the recovery we've been seeing in retail sales and housing. It will be a knock on the head for both.
fall lose market per points wall
I don't think we will fall as much as Wall Street. Our market will lose 50 points or 1 per cent.