Scott Krugman
Scott Krugman
depending effects forecast happens mean might next open remains revision seen war
I think it remains to be seen how things go over the next month, ... The forecast is always open to revision depending on a set of circumstances we might not have seen. That could mean the effects from the lockout, or it could mean what happens if we got to war with Iraq.
active aside change consumer cuts government helped layoffs might near putting rate recent skirt tax tomorrow
We might skirt near a recession, and this could change tomorrow ... but layoffs aside for a second, there are some positives. The government is being very active by putting liquidity back into the economy, and recent tax rebates and cuts in the tax rate have helped consumer confidence.
compare considered difficult
Earlier, we were considered optimistic, but it's difficult to compare all the numbers.
boost capture consumers distracted impact provide short spending term
Saddam's capture could provide a psychological boost to consumers who have been distracted by geopolitical uncertainly. However, in the short term it will have a negligible impact on spending trends,
hearing huge sales saturday
From what we've been hearing Saturday was a huge day for sales and a huge day for traffic,
cards factors gift holiday last late playing role season
There are two factors over last year: Gift cards are playing more of a role in the holiday season and the fact that we have such a late Hanukkah this year.
affect came costs gas higher holiday impact mostly price prices pump since
While the price of gas didn't have an impact on the holiday season, mostly since prices at the pump came down, this is not to say higher heating costs won't affect post-holiday spending.
optimistic tracking
It's tracking very strong. We feel very optimistic about this season.
budgets consumers early fraction gotten home improvement people projects putting shopping small supplement
It's way too early to actually tell its impact. Such a small fraction of consumers have gotten them. People will use them to supplement back-to-school shopping budgets and home improvement projects people have been putting off.
biggest bit counting event holiday january lull month niche season second
It's not a niche holiday by any stretch. It's the first big event after the (winter) holiday season. January is a bit of a lull month for the industry. Not counting back-to-school, Valentine's Day is the second biggest season for spending.
good great holiday season turn
It's enough to turn a good holiday season into a great one.
people policies return trying
The only people who are going to have problems, real problems, with return policies are people who are trying to defraud a retailer.
black friday
This is the most promotional Black Friday we have seen.
apparel avoid cards easier gift lines people selection starts thin trying turning
It is an easier last-minute gift. For people that are trying to avoid the long lines or as the apparel selection starts to thin out, I think you will see more people turning to gift cards today.