Robin Clements
Robin Clements
expected growth recession slow
Growth is expected to slow further, with a recession possible.
amidst patch soft turn
We are amidst a soft patch that may turn out to be recessionary.
basis consistent element market moved reaction result
With some speculation that the RBNZ could have moved by 50 basis points, the end result was a market reaction consistent with an element of relief.
account currency current deficit imports respond seen solve stay wider worrying
We need to see imports soften off if we are ever going to solve the current account deficit problem. That's why we've seen the currency respond to the wider deficit. It's worrying that the current account deficit will stay large.
avoid higher
It's not what you would have wanted of you wanted to avoid higher rates.
account adds cast current further good likelihood news shadow
It's not good news and adds to likelihood the current account is going to deteriorate further and cast a shadow over the currency,
far
Stockprices can go up as far as the moon.
add
It will add to the picture, in my view, that they will not need to do any more tightening.
bank easing likelihood parts raising rather remain reserve sooner
With the likelihood that the Reserve Bank will be easing sooner rather than later, and other parts of the world actually raising rates, the pressure's going to remain on the currency.
advantage currency dollar easing fact left ought positive preserving rate saying unchanged
The fact that the bank's left the rate unchanged and is saying there's still no easing ought to be positive for the currency by preserving that rate advantage the kiwi dollar has.
case further hikes rate
Accordingly, there is no case for further rate hikes in our view.
above cent march per petrol prices pump quarter
As of today, petrol prices at the pump are 14 per cent above the March quarter average.
bank business despite market move near nowhere obviously people price protests
Despite the protests of politicians and some business people that we were nowhere near recession, obviously we're very close. I think the bank will ease, and the market will undoubtedly move to price it in earlier.
cut middle oil price pushed raises rate risk spike
The oil price spike raises the risk that the rate cut may have to be pushed out to the middle of the year.