Robert Philips
Robert Philips
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The stock market initially got pretty spooked by the strong March payrolls number. At that time, the futures market was signaling no rate hike until November. Now, it's signaling August.
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From a technical standpoint the market is in a pretty good place. But I think it's a classic summer Friday, and people don't want to commit too much after the week we've seen and ahead of all the news next week.
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On the day, you're just seeing traders take some profits in response to an overbought condition after the rally, but longer-term there is a real concern about the bond market being at a 45-year low and the risks of deflation.
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It'll give some clarity about interest rates, whether the market can break out of this range, and will give us some indications about the presidential election. The better the jobs number, the better for Bush's re-election campaign, and for some on Wall Street, that's preferable, because they know what his policies are, and someone else coming in is more of an unknown.
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Long term, I think the markets are higher. ... I think on a very short basis, we're due for a pullback of sorts. The government is doing all it can to stimulate the economy, but pricing power is a concern longer term.
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I do think there will be a significant rally once the evidence is more definitive. A conclusive end to war will fix the problems we are having today. A positive end to war stimulates a stock market rally, which stimulates consumer and corporate spending. I think it's the stock market that comes first -- it's always been that way.
iraq market resolution
The market is technically oversold, so you could see a short-term bounce, but without a resolution to the Iraq question, you're not going to see anything substantial.
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The market has been oversold with all the fear. So partly, you're seeing a response to that,
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Texas Instruments' conference call left people pretty cold. That broke the momentum of that group and has spilled over into other tech stocks.
talked within
We've talked to him about opportunities within our cluster. It's really in Steve's court.
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My sense is that we're going to keep consolidating over the next few weeks after the kind of run we've had. Then you could see stocks start to move higher again.
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The PPI today obviously affected the bond market. Stocks are more neutral right now in that you have oil stocks, materials and drug stocks doing well today, and that's countering the concerns about inflation.
affected bond concerns materials neutral obviously oil stocks today
The PPI today obviously affected the bond market, ... Stocks are more neutral right now in that you have oil stocks, materials and drug stocks doing well today, and that's countering the concerns about inflation.
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We've had two days of pretty good rallies and now there's a bit of consolidation. We're not going to go anywhere meaningful until lots of these issues get resolved. When stocks get beaten down far enough, people get interested.