Robert Brusca
Robert Brusca
bad companies disturbing glorified indication move order orders overall percentage points running shows tend
We tend to look at this and the Philadelphia index as an indication of what is going on in the overall economy. Most disturbing is that order backlogs are running over 50 percent, which is the glorified neutral. It's at 6 percentage points below, that's bad -- it shows companies are cannibalizing orders to move ahead.
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So while some special factors may be boosting spending, the overall trend of spending is well out of line with income growth. This tells us that this spending trend is unsustainable unless consumer income growth picks up sharply.
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The consumer still has life. It does temper the overall gain, but we're still going to see the consumer spending this quarter.
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You count up the products (showing price increases) and you see there's a little more pressure just below the surface, ... The overall energy number showed a big decline. That covers up a lot of ills. But the PPI was the warning shot across the bow. With the CPI report we dodged the bullet.
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What's going on here is we've got a lot of growth. We've seen very, very strong consumption.
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The stock market is earnings-oriented. But if you're looking at earnings, you're not seeing anything improving.
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The sell-off in bonds is for real and is the correct reaction. The Fed will need confirmation to act. The bond market won't. It takes no prisoners.
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The soft spot is looking to be bigger and softer all the time.
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The rise, however, does not mean that housing is out of the woods -- far from it. The Fed is still hiking.
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During this recent period there may be some extra spending on the part of those recovering from hurricane disasters. But it is also true that comprehensive consumer spending has been outstripping income growth over this period,
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Each Fed Chairman has to go through his own, on-the-job, trial by fire. There is no other way.
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Prices don't decline like this unless you've got a lot of slack demand conditions.
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Private sector job growth is still challenged. The report is not very good for the month alone, but the trends have actually improved, thanks to the revisions.
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People don't look at economic data. But they know their own firm, they know if it's solid, they know if it's hiring and if people are getting raises. Even if they're not looking for a job, they know what's going on with their brother or sister or friend's job search. That's what makes these surveys powerful.