Robert Brusca
Robert Brusca
above average bad divides good job line market months normal performance recent recessions three
Two of the three recent months are above the midpoint line that divides the average layoff performance in recessions from normal layoff periods. This suggests the job market is getting to be more like it is in bad times than in good times,
line
This is very, very much in line with the idea we're slipping into a recession.
consumer factors growth income line overall picks special spending tells trend unless
So while some special factors may be boosting spending, the overall trend of spending is well out of line with income growth. This tells us that this spending trend is unsustainable unless consumer income growth picks up sharply.
greenspan line price says stability telling
This is in line with what Mr. Greenspan has been telling us, which is that we have price stability for goods. But he says he doesn't think we have price stability for services.
growth seen strong
What's going on here is we've got a lot of growth. We've seen very, very strong consumption.
looking market seeing stock
The stock market is earnings-oriented. But if you're looking at earnings, you're not seeing anything improving.
bonds correct fed market takes
The sell-off in bonds is for real and is the correct reaction. The Fed will need confirmation to act. The bond market won't. It takes no prisoners.
bigger looking soft softer spot
The soft spot is looking to be bigger and softer all the time.
far fed housing mean woods
The rise, however, does not mean that housing is out of the woods -- far from it. The Fed is still hiking.
consumer disaster extra growth hurricane income period recent recovering spending true
During this recent period there may be some extra spending on the part of those recovering from hurricane disasters. But it is also true that comprehensive consumer spending has been outstripping income growth over this period,
chairman fed fire trial
Each Fed Chairman has to go through his own, on-the-job, trial by fire. There is no other way.
decline demand prices slack unless
Prices don't decline like this unless you've got a lot of slack demand conditions.
good growth job month private report sector thanks trends
Private sector job growth is still challenged. The report is not very good for the month alone, but the trends have actually improved, thanks to the revisions.
brother economic hiring job looking people sister
People don't look at economic data. But they know their own firm, they know if it's solid, they know if it's hiring and if people are getting raises. Even if they're not looking for a job, they know what's going on with their brother or sister or friend's job search. That's what makes these surveys powerful.