Richard Thaler
Richard Thaler
Richard H. Thaleris an American economist and the Ralph and Dorothy Keller Distinguished Service Professor of Behavioral Science and Economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business...
thinking people risk
I think the people who've been the most overconfident in our business in the last decade have been the people that called themselves risk managers.
risk matter thumbs
A good rule of thumb is to assume that everything matters.
thinking giving risk
I think one lesson we have to learn is that there's a lot more risk than we're giving credit to, a lot more what economist calls systematic risk.
deep internet moment prove stocks
At the moment no one can prove that these Internet stocks are overpriced. But many of us have deep suspicions.
cancer papers picking predicting school students subjects survival
There have been hundreds of papers on subjects from picking students for a school to predicting the survival of cancer patients.
choice choices doubt high observe people pure rarely
There is no doubt that these are real people making real choices for high stakes, and we rarely get to observe such pure decisions.
definition prices
The median person still thought that their prices were going to go up. That's the definition of a bubble.
retirement self saving
Retirement savings is probably behavioral economists' greatest success story. It is a prototypical behavioral-economics problem because saving for retirement is cognitively hard - figuring out how much to save - and requires self-control.
simple two people
One simple step firms can take is make sure that people that are getting paid a lot of money, say more than a million or two, that a big chunk of that money is deferred. That's going to change the whole ballgame.
mean years people
The money has to be deferred with what they call "clawback," which means they can get it back if I lose it all. So that guy making ten million a year selling credit default swaps, if we're going to keep five million of it in escrow for ten years, and with the right to go back and get it, if he starts losing money, then we're going to give people the right incentives not too take so much risk.
retirement people important
Everyone's lost a lot of money on their 401k plans. I've heard some people calling them 201k plans. So it's even more important to get people to be saving more for retirement. Behavioral economics has helped us learn a lot about how to do that.
saving want enrollment
In a typical 401k plan, when you first become eligible you get a big pile of forms and you're told, fill out these forms if you want to join. Tell us how much amount you've saved and how you want to invest the money. In, under automatic enrollment you get that same pile of forms but the top page says, if you don't fill out these forms, we're going to enroll you anyway and we're going to enroll you at this saving rate and in these investments.
years saving tomorrow
There's a second component of a good savings plan, which is something that a colleague of mine called Schlomo Benartzi and I developed many years ago, that we call "save more tomorrow."
two people tonight
"Save more tomorrow" is a nudge to help people do what they know they want to do, which is save more, but they can't bring themselves to save more now. Just like many of us are planning to go on diets next month, or maybe in two months, certainly not tonight.