Richard Hastings
Richard Hastings
Richard Cory Hastingsis a Canadian association football player, who has played for Inverness Caledonian Thistle, Ross County, Grazer AK, MVV Maastricht, Hamilton Academical and Brora Rangers...
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The risk for Wal-Mart is that as wages improve, consumers will go to alternative retailers such as Home Depot, Gap, Bed, Bath & Beyond or a Best Buy for better quality and more variety of products,
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Will the anticipation of more expensive bills hurt holiday sales? I don't think so. I think consumer spending will see more of a marginal change rather than a substantial change, primarily at the lower-income level.
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Weaker spending on seasonal goods has been building up for four months now. The two factors hurting consumers particularly at the low- and middle-income levels are that wages have not grown and gasoline prices could go even higher.
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Gift cards are like proprietary currency issued by a retailer. The intention is to get a potentially new consumer to come in and trade in that currency and try new merchandise. We're seeing retailers across the spectrum doing as much as possible to promote them.
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One area of trouble in consumer spending is households and individuals with weakening credit profiles. So far it's not yet a majority of households but the number of consumers in credit distress is on the increase. That's something to keep an eye on,
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What's holding up the consumer is habit. Until things change in a very material manner, American consumers won't alter their shopping habits significantly. The jobs market is strong and there's been a little bit of improvement in wage growth. I still don't believe that gas prices are high enough to derail consumers. If there is one thing that could shake consumers it's the housing market and not gas inflation.
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Consumers have a way of pulling it together for the holidays. We could see weakness in apparel and footwear sales but electronics, entertainment products and gift cards could do very well in the fourth quarter.
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Consumers have a way of pulling it together for the holidays.
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Consumers are benefiting from a combination of tax stimulus, new products, good apparel fashions and compelling prices.
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To be concerned about the strength of consumer spending is wise. Wal-Mart as a barometer of consumer spending is significant. Consumer spending will start to moderate off of its hot pace in the second-half of the year.
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If spending on durable goods slows down, it could also weaken sales of consumer electronics, especially on big ticket items that have a higher profit margin but are interest rate sensitive.
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I continue to believe that the effects of higher gas prices on the consumer are overestimated. Most of the important measures of discretionary spending such as furniture, lawn and garden and food sales held up nicely.
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The consumer is jittery. Rising debt levels, inflation and higher gasoline prices are all real threats and a drag on spending.
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The capital markets are so liquid, despite some of the increase in borrowing costs, that they create wonderful choices for consumer companies like Tommy Hilfiger and J. Crew to go private, ... break themselves into pieces, gobble someone else's pieces or just try to raise money to get bigger.