Richard Aboulafia
Richard Aboulafia
jets light market players several trying wants
We have no idea how the market for very light jets will look in 25 years from now. There are several players trying to get into this market, but we really don't know what the market wants yet.
attack businesses corporate familiar jets less market regional risk trying
Reinforcing their traditional businesses -- regional jets and corporate jets -- makes a lot of sense. It's familiar turf, they know the customers, and there's much less risk than trying to attack a market that's got two entrenched competitors.
basically business convert guys money oil taking trying
These guys are basically taking oil money and trying to convert it into a long-term value-added business. That's not dumb.
closer counts customer moves
These moves get them closer to the customer. And the customer that counts is in Washington.
establish permanent
Right now things are good, but there's not enough permanent linkage to establish a trend.
blue chip orders
Boeing has all the blue chip orders. Airbus only has 100 orders for the A350.
explain people
You can explain this. But people see what they want to see.
bit cave couple hollow increased might result run strike victory weeks
While a strike of a couple of weeks might be doable, some kind of accommodation would have to be reached. If Boeing does cave and give them something like what they want, it will be a bit of a hollow victory because in the long run it will probably result in increased outsourcing.
analysis concept endorse
The analysis of alternatives did nothing more than endorse the very concept of the obvious.
key questions serious victory
If Airbus can't get a key A340 victory soon, there will be serious questions about that program.
demand production
I don't know which is more bloated, the production expectations or the demand expectations.
afford current either force hollow iraq martin message structure thinking
Basically, we're going to either have a hollow force or a truncated force structure -- the message here is that we couldn't really afford Iraq and our current military. If Boeing and Lockheed Martin aren't thinking like that in public, they are in private.
favor trends
If these trends continue, it's going to be 60-40 in favor of Boeing ( BA ) by the end of the decade, and there's even a possibility of a two-thirds, one-third split.
golden
If they do this right, they are golden for a long time.