Peter Kretzmer
Peter Kretzmer
deficit finally huge trade
The huge U.S. trade deficit may finally be stabilizing.
commodity inflation prices since
There hasn't been a lot of correlation between commodity prices and inflation since 1990.
demand higher home interest likely ownership properties push rates rising stronger
With interest rates rising and demand for new home ownership slowing, it is likely that stronger demand for rental properties will push rental rates up at a higher pace.
sign strong
It is a strong number. There is little sign of a slowdown,
couple instead percent reckoning subtract
My reckoning is it will subtract a couple of tenths of a percent, so we will have first-quarter GDP at 1.5 percent instead of 2.0 percent,
affect continues cooling declining evidence higher home housing market mortgage mount rates rising starting
Rising home prices, higher mortgage rates and declining affordability are starting to affect housing demand. Evidence continues to mount that the housing market is cooling off.
basis buck built continues fed move points
It assures that the Fed continues to not buck what was built into the futures contract, and will move by 25 basis points in September.
assume direct economic events fed gulf late pauses rather related response slowing year
If the Fed pauses late in the year, as we now assume in December, its response will be related to economic fundamentals, with GDP slowing late in the year rather than a direct 'emergency' response to events on the Gulf Coast.
activity business companies confirm continue economic expand investment later offices remains report retail shown slow spending strong year
We look for the report to confirm that economic activity remains strong. Retail spending will slow later this year but that hasn't shown up yet, and business investment should continue to be pretty strong as companies expand offices and factories.
claims conditions continued department estimates hurricane including indicate labor market outside reports since solid
Jobless claims reports since Katrina, including Labor Department estimates of hurricane influence, indicate continued solid labor market conditions outside of hurricane-related distortion,
bullish coming data feeling number overall trade weaker
The overall weaker GDP number coming from the trade data does give you a more bullish feeling on Treasuries,
meaning worried
We don't know if there is any meaning to the slowdown in these other categories. I wouldn't be too worried about it.
commodity consumer evidence fed impact inflation pipeline pressures price recent reports shown
On balance, recent inflation reports have shown the Fed evidence of pipeline commodity price pressures but with little impact on consumer inflation trends,
conditions consistent improving labor market
That's consistent with the idea that labor market conditions are not really improving yet. They're not getting worse, either, but they've only stabilized.