Paul McCulley
Paul McCulley
Paul Allen McCulley is an American economist and former managing director at PIMCO. He coined the terms "Minsky moment" and "shadow banking system", which became famous during the Financial crisis of 2007–2009...
bugs currency fallen gold help last missed open regimes soaring though year
The gold bugs missed that. But they were not wrong, even though most of them went broke. In the end, fiat currency regimes are inflationist. Soaring gold over the last year has coincided with the Fed's open acknowledgement that it has fallen off the disinflation wagon, not because it could not help itself, but because it had no choice." ()
bugs currency fallen gold help last missed open regimes soaring though year
The gold bugs missed that, ... But they were not wrong, even though most of them went broke. In the end, fiat currency regimes are inflationist. Soaring gold over the last year has coincided with the Fed's open acknowledgement that it has fallen off the disinflation wagon, not because it could not help itself, but because it had no choice." ()
act bond coming market sheer sun viewed
The sheer act of tightening will be viewed in the bond market as the sun coming up in the East." ()
doctor gotta
But there does have to be a point, ... where the doctor says, 'Fridge, you gotta go back to eating.'" ()
act bear last market
To say this is the last day of the bear market would be an act of hubris." ()
biggest bills chunk filling good issue last matters percent prices versus winter
The biggest issue right now is that natural-gas prices and winter heating bills are probably going to be up 30 percent versus last year. And for a good chunk of the country, that matters even more than the price of filling up the SUV," ()
above anywhere data market negative perspective profound respect robust turnaround
The turnaround can't be anywhere as robust and profound as the data said this week. At the same time, from a market perspective you have to respect that the data was above expectations. So it's a negative for bonds." ()
leave might people ultimately
That might leave some people scratching their heads. Ultimately they get the message, but you need a translator at times." ()
remember beta active
Remember, benchmark performance -- beta -- can be had for virtually free; alpha is what active managers are paid to generate.
lunch withdrawal looks
Rightly or wrongly, most Americans look at mortgage equity withdrawal as the closest thing to a free lunch.
thinking steps process
The bond market is debating with itself what the intent of the Fed is. I don't think the Fed has a multi-step process. They are taking it step by step.
running war fighting
The essence of the problem is that the war against inflation is over, ... Ever since 1979 the Fed was fighting a war against inflation, and you always knew which way you wanted the inflation rate to go over the long run -- down.
two issues lions
The lion's share of the bear market is over, ... It's a two-part issue. Yes, the marketplace could be nasty. But there's a great deal of nastiness that's already happened in the bond market.
attention starving anorexics
You don't get the attention of gluttons by starving anorexics.