Paul Kasriel
Paul Kasriel
baton desert housing leader moses promised quite rates somebody taking unusual
There may be somebody else taking the baton now, which is not unusual in a recovery. Housing is typically the leader out of the desert to the promised land; but, just like Moses didn't make it to the promised land, as rates rise, housing doesn't quite make it, either. Other sectors do.
along credit curve demand falling fed funds holding indicate keeping level might naturally rate rates slowing yields
There are a lot of crosscurrents now, but falling yields might indicate that demand for credit is slowing down and that the Fed, by holding the fed funds rate where it is, is actually keeping rates all along the curve from falling to their equilibrium level, or to the level where would they would more naturally go.
concern fast funds household members moving prefer rate suspect upsetting
I think there are some members who would prefer that the funds rate be at 3 percent, but I suspect there is a little concern about moving too fast and upsetting the household sector.
bit cut fact inflation order rates softness starts
If he starts to see softness in the economy, and if in fact inflation is moderating, he will want to cut rates a little bit in order to have a soft landing.
adjusting aggregate debt households income likely paying percent rates service tax
And rates are not likely to be adjusting downward. Households are paying about 13.75 percent of their aggregate tax income to service debt -- and it is going to go higher.
detect doubt growth view
In a longer-run sense, I would view it as marginally unproductive, a worsening of the trade-off between growth and inflation, ... But will we be able to detect that? I doubt it.
data pointing toward
The new data are pointing toward a bottoming out in the manufacturing sector,
economic growing pickup suggest temporary
It's growing rapidly, and it does suggest that we're going to see at least a temporary pickup in economic activity.
banking fed happy lend provide reserves system
The Fed is happy to provide all the reserves the banking system needs, ... It's told the banking system 'Ya'll lend now,' and they're doing it.
curve reliable turning yield
The yield curve has been one of the more reliable indicators of turning points, not necessarily recessions, but slowdowns in the economy.
economy inflation lived mistake remember toll took tremendous vowed
Those who have lived through the 1970s remember the tremendous toll that accelerating inflation took on the economy and vowed to never make that mistake again,
drift further growth half maybe second
We should get a little better growth in the second half -- but not enough. By the end of the year, maybe we will have enough to stabilize the unemployment rate, but I think we will probably see a further drift up in the unemployment rate.
consumer growth job moderate moderation point spending
I've thought there would be some moderation in consumer spending this year, but I also thought that job growth would be better at this point than it has been. It may be that consumer spending will moderate even more than what I'm forecasting.
clearly eye nose recession short speed struggling
A recession is in the eye of the beholder, and the eye of the NBER, but clearly we're struggling here. We're at stall speed and it's not clear what, in the short term, is going to get the economy's nose up.