Paul Kasriel
Paul Kasriel
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If he starts to see softness in the economy, and if in fact inflation is moderating, he will want to cut rates a little bit in order to have a soft landing.
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The dollar would have fallen faster or further had there not been this massive central bank intervention. If in fact they are going to cut back on their dollar-support activities, then the dollar is going to resume its decline, and that's going to have some inflationary implications.
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In a longer-run sense, I would view it as marginally unproductive, a worsening of the trade-off between growth and inflation, ... But will we be able to detect that? I doubt it.
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The new data are pointing toward a bottoming out in the manufacturing sector,
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It's growing rapidly, and it does suggest that we're going to see at least a temporary pickup in economic activity.
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The Fed is happy to provide all the reserves the banking system needs, ... It's told the banking system 'Ya'll lend now,' and they're doing it.
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The yield curve has been one of the more reliable indicators of turning points, not necessarily recessions, but slowdowns in the economy.
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Those who have lived through the 1970s remember the tremendous toll that accelerating inflation took on the economy and vowed to never make that mistake again,
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We should get a little better growth in the second half -- but not enough. By the end of the year, maybe we will have enough to stabilize the unemployment rate, but I think we will probably see a further drift up in the unemployment rate.
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I've thought there would be some moderation in consumer spending this year, but I also thought that job growth would be better at this point than it has been. It may be that consumer spending will moderate even more than what I'm forecasting.
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A recession is in the eye of the beholder, and the eye of the NBER, but clearly we're struggling here. We're at stall speed and it's not clear what, in the short term, is going to get the economy's nose up.
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You're going to see good profit growth over the next several quarters, but it's not going to be as strong as it's been of late. Still, it will be better than a poke in the eye.
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O'Neill was like the offensive line of the Green Bay Packers playing in a dome -- they can't hear signals. O'Neill couldn't hear the signals the White House was sending, and they got rid of him. Presumably, Snow has better hearing.
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A bursting of the housing bubble could result in a severe recession.