Paul Kasriel
Paul Kasriel
advantage business debts interest pay seems somewhat stay unfair
It seems that what it allows you to do is ... stay in business with somewhat of an unfair advantage over your competitors, who still do have to pay their debts and pay interest on those debts.
consumer growth job moderate moderation point spending
I've thought there would be some moderation in consumer spending this year, but I also thought that job growth would be better at this point than it has been. It may be that consumer spending will moderate even more than what I'm forecasting.
economy inflation lived mistake remember toll took tremendous vowed
Those who have lived through the 1970s remember the tremendous toll that accelerating inflation took on the economy and vowed to never make that mistake again,
drift further growth half maybe second
We should get a little better growth in the second half -- but not enough. By the end of the year, maybe we will have enough to stabilize the unemployment rate, but I think we will probably see a further drift up in the unemployment rate.
bank buy confidence creditors currency maintain pay start telling
When you're the world's banker, you really need to maintain the world's confidence in you and your currency. If you start telling creditors you're going to pay them back in currency that doesn't buy as much, they won't want to bank with you any more.
bay dome green hear house line offensive playing rid signals snow white
O'Neill was like the offensive line of the Green Bay Packers playing in a dome -- they can't hear signals. O'Neill couldn't hear the signals the White House was sending, and they got rid of him. Presumably, Snow has better hearing.
economic fed finally fog growth less monetary policy remains turns war weak
When the fog of war is finally lifted, we may find that economic growth remains weak because monetary policy turns out to be less accommodative than the Fed thought,
bubble bursting housing result severe
A bursting of the housing bubble could result in a severe recession.
economic growing pickup suggest temporary
It's growing rapidly, and it does suggest that we're going to see at least a temporary pickup in economic activity.
along credit curve demand falling fed funds holding indicate keeping level might naturally rate rates slowing yields
There are a lot of crosscurrents now, but falling yields might indicate that demand for credit is slowing down and that the Fed, by holding the fed funds rate where it is, is actually keeping rates all along the curve from falling to their equilibrium level, or to the level where would they would more naturally go.
grade greenspan seeds turn wait whether year
We really don't want to give Greenspan a grade yet. You want to wait a year or two to see whether the seeds turn to weeds.
good growth next poke profit several strong
You're going to see good profit growth over the next several quarters, but it's not going to be as strong as it's been of late. Still, it will be better than a poke in the eye.
baton desert housing leader moses promised quite rates somebody taking unusual
There may be somebody else taking the baton now, which is not unusual in a recovery. Housing is typically the leader out of the desert to the promised land; but, just like Moses didn't make it to the promised land, as rates rise, housing doesn't quite make it, either. Other sectors do.
clearly eye nose recession short speed struggling
A recession is in the eye of the beholder, and the eye of the NBER, but clearly we're struggling here. We're at stall speed and it's not clear what, in the short term, is going to get the economy's nose up.