Paul Kasriel
Paul Kasriel
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If Republicans were to regain control of the Senate, the probabilities of some major tax cuts would go up quite dramatically. If those tax cuts were implemented, this would have a positive impact on both the economy and the stock market.
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If he starts to see softness in the economy, and if in fact inflation is moderating, he will want to cut rates a little bit in order to have a soft landing.
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The dollar would have fallen faster or further had there not been this massive central bank intervention. If in fact they are going to cut back on their dollar-support activities, then the dollar is going to resume its decline, and that's going to have some inflationary implications.
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I've thought there would be some moderation in consumer spending this year, but I also thought that job growth would be better at this point than it has been. It may be that consumer spending will moderate even more than what I'm forecasting.
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Those who have lived through the 1970s remember the tremendous toll that accelerating inflation took on the economy and vowed to never make that mistake again,
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We should get a little better growth in the second half -- but not enough. By the end of the year, maybe we will have enough to stabilize the unemployment rate, but I think we will probably see a further drift up in the unemployment rate.
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When you're the world's banker, you really need to maintain the world's confidence in you and your currency. If you start telling creditors you're going to pay them back in currency that doesn't buy as much, they won't want to bank with you any more.
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O'Neill was like the offensive line of the Green Bay Packers playing in a dome -- they can't hear signals. O'Neill couldn't hear the signals the White House was sending, and they got rid of him. Presumably, Snow has better hearing.
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When the fog of war is finally lifted, we may find that economic growth remains weak because monetary policy turns out to be less accommodative than the Fed thought,
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A bursting of the housing bubble could result in a severe recession.
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It seems that what it allows you to do is ... stay in business with somewhat of an unfair advantage over your competitors, who still do have to pay their debts and pay interest on those debts.
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It's growing rapidly, and it does suggest that we're going to see at least a temporary pickup in economic activity.
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There are a lot of crosscurrents now, but falling yields might indicate that demand for credit is slowing down and that the Fed, by holding the fed funds rate where it is, is actually keeping rates all along the curve from falling to their equilibrium level, or to the level where would they would more naturally go.
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We really don't want to give Greenspan a grade yet. You want to wait a year or two to see whether the seeds turn to weeds.