Patrick Fearon
Patrick Fearon
certainly conspiracy eat economists gods seems words
It seems like this is a conspiracy by the gods to make us economists eat our words when we said manufacturing was back on its feet. It's certainly a disappointing number.
companies current force happy keeping level looks lose relatively seem stingy work workers
This level still looks like companies are happy with their current work force, and they are being relatively stingy about keeping their workers -- they don't seem to want to lose too many.
coming consistent decline expected figure housing percent permits sector seems starts thesis weaker
The housing starts figure coming in down 5.6 percent was weaker than expected and seems consistent with our thesis that the housing sector is moderating. The big decline in housing permits reinforces that idea.
claims expected initial job range solid within
Initial claims were significantly better than the expected 300,000, and they were well within the range we would expect in a solid job market.
coming consistent continue home housing likely market moderate sales view
This is consistent with our view that the housing market is likely to continue to moderate in the coming months. But ... home sales are historically pretty strong.
bond calming core far gotten inflation influence price
The core PCE price index is a calming influence on the bond market. Inflation so far has far not gotten out of hand.
bond calming core far gotten inflation influence price
The core PCE price index is a calming influence on the bond market, ... Inflation so far has far not gotten out of hand.
certainly growth key lower rate
It's certainly lower than expectations so in that sense it was a disappointment, but the key thing is that this is still appreciably better as a growth rate than the long-term average, which is only about 3 percent,
consumer course
It's an encouraging sign, but of course we have a long way to go before you would say that the consumer is very optimistic.
despite february indicator might quite report strong
So despite the indicator today, the report for February might not be quite as strong as this is suggesting.
believers finally labor market people starting
The labor market has been strengthening for a while, but it may be that people are finally starting to become believers in it.
below came decent expanding high level sector slightly suggest
The ISM manufacturing index came in at a decent level in January, just slightly below expectations, but still high enough to suggest that the manufacturing sector is expanding at a steady-as-she-goes pace.
continues economy grow large majority sector service shows side
The ISM index shows that the service side of the economy continues to grow well and that's important because that sector makes up the large majority of the economy.
certainly claims expect labor low range relatively remain strong though
Even though that was an 11,000 increase, you have to say claims remain relatively low and certainly in the range we would expect in a strong labor market.