Patrick Fearon
Patrick Fearon
consumer easily fact final higher number shows
The fact that the final number is higher than the preliminary number shows that the American consumer is not going to be easily intimidated.
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There was decent strength across the retail sector. These numbers are consistent with an economy growing at a comfortable rate, a pace that would allow the Fed to continue to raise interest rates in a measured fashion.
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The numbers are still quite healthy, they're still well within the range you would expect in a period of high demand for labor.
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The positive message is that if you strip out the numbers that the Labor Department says are the result of the hurricane, the underlying figures are still pretty decent. That shows that there was some cushion in the economy before Katrina hit.
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It could mean that those people don't show up in the jobless numbers until relatively late, so it's an evolving situations in terms of understanding the impact on the labor market.
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The drop in jobless claims is a darn good number. A number in the range of 325,000 to 350,000 is a level that is more consistent with healthy economic growth,
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Initial claims were significantly better than the expected 300,000, and they were well within the range we would expect in a solid job market.
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This is consistent with our view that the housing market is likely to continue to moderate in the coming months. But ... home sales are historically pretty strong.
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The core PCE price index is a calming influence on the bond market. Inflation so far has far not gotten out of hand.
bond calming core far gotten inflation influence price
The core PCE price index is a calming influence on the bond market, ... Inflation so far has far not gotten out of hand.
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It's certainly lower than expectations so in that sense it was a disappointment, but the key thing is that this is still appreciably better as a growth rate than the long-term average, which is only about 3 percent,
consumer course
It's an encouraging sign, but of course we have a long way to go before you would say that the consumer is very optimistic.
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So despite the indicator today, the report for February might not be quite as strong as this is suggesting.
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The labor market has been strengthening for a while, but it may be that people are finally starting to become believers in it.