Patrick Fearon
Patrick Fearon
consistent economy employment good growing pace report sector seeing service
The service sector of the economy is still growing at a good pace and that is consistent with what we were seeing in the employment report for November.
certainly growth key lower rate
It's certainly lower than expectations so in that sense it was a disappointment, but the key thing is that this is still appreciably better as a growth rate than the long-term average, which is only about 3 percent,
albeit consumer continuing economic fact good growth labor market momentum positive reflects sign start year
It's a good sign that the consumer has some momentum going into the start of the year and that probably reflects the fact that the labor market is continuing to improve, albeit modestly. It's a positive for economic growth this year.
conclude consumer eventually factor federal fourth growth help housing monetary rate reserve sector slow spending tend
We still think that the growth rate will slow substantially in the fourth quarter, in part because the housing sector is softening which will tend to soften consumer spending as well. That is one factor that will probably help the Federal Reserve eventually conclude its monetary tightening cycle.
across allow consistent continue decent economy fed growing interest measured numbers pace raise rates retail strength
There was decent strength across the retail sector. These numbers are consistent with an economy growing at a comfortable rate, a pace that would allow the Fed to continue to raise interest rates in a measured fashion.
core decide fairly fed growth hand point raising rate soon stop
If the core rate doesn't get out of hand and growth comes in moderate, at some point fairly soon the Fed could decide ... to stop raising rates.
continues economy grow large majority sector service shows side
The ISM index shows that the service side of the economy continues to grow well and that's important because that sector makes up the large majority of the economy.
august decent economic expected figure peak revised weaker
It was a little weaker than expected but still a pretty decent number. In fact, the August (housing start) figure was revised up to 2.02 million, and that's a new peak for this economic cycle.
august decent economic expected figure peak revised weaker
It was a little weaker than expected but still a pretty decent number, ... In fact, the August (housing start) figure was revised up to 2.02 million, and that's a new peak for this economic cycle.
certainly claims expect labor low range relatively remain strong though
Even though that was an 11,000 increase, you have to say claims remain relatively low and certainly in the range we would expect in a strong labor market.
amount below came certain consumer days fact final higher market past reading resilience shows survey taken volatility
The survey for the final reading would have taken place over the past 10 days or so, when market volatility was particularly high, ... Because of that, the final reading very well could have come in below the preliminary reading. The fact it came in higher shows a certain amount of resilience in the consumer sector.
claims compared general healthy indicator initial labor last low march market months remains several size trend workforce
The trend in general for the last several months has been in this ballpark, with initial claims being really pretty low compared with the size of the workforce and the size of the economy. So for some time, jobless claims have been and indicator that the labor market remains healthy and March payrolls probably will remain pretty healthy as well.
fed raising rates stop support
That would support the idea that the Fed can stop raising rates soon.
core december fed inflation modest percent personal raising rates reflects rise stable stop support
The 1.9 percent December year-over-year rise in the core personal consumption expenditure index reflects a stable and modest inflation rate. That would support the idea that the Fed can stop raising rates soon.