Nigel Gault
Nigel Gault
appeared couple far gasoline growth healthy holiday looks months per prices spending
Excluding autos, spending growth looks healthy -- not a blockbuster holiday season, but far better than it appeared a couple of months ago when gasoline prices were over $3 per gallon.
believe growth numbers rest soft throughout today view
We believe the numbers today are confirming our view that growth will be soft throughout the rest of the year.
economic economy-and-economics evidence growth improving jobs latest opposite report
This latest report is unmistakable evidence of an improving economy. What you have to look for is evidence that the fourth-quarter slowdown in economic growth will continue. And this jobs report is evidence that just the opposite is happening.
august bigger dragged fourth growth hit impact measured possible quarter september
It is possible that the hurricanes that hit in August and September had a bigger impact on measured GDP growth in the fourth quarter than in the third. ... The hurricanes probably dragged on investment, too.
good greatly growth labor last reports strength suspect third underlying
Growth was very good in the third quarter. We really suspect that the last two reports greatly understated the underlying strength of the labor market.
clearly damage economy-and-economics growth housing mark mean overall question slower
Clearly the slowdown in housing will mean slower growth in the overall economy. The big question mark is how much damage there will be.
add conviction extremely fed figures financial growth markets raising soon stable stop suggest
These figures suggest that growth is stable but not extremely strong. These figures should add to the conviction in financial markets that the Fed will soon be able to stop raising rates.
scholars-and-scholarship start stop unusual
It wouldn't be unusual at all for them to stop and start again.
coming core costs energy expect finished goods higher inflation katrina pass prices rising saying
Energy prices were rising before Katrina hit, and while those costs didn't make their way through to finished goods in August, we have to expect higher core inflation in coming months. Firms are saying that they've absorbed so much already that they have to pass on these costs.
consumers faster increasing spending
U.S. consumers have been increasing their spending much faster than their incomes.
coming deficit given larger oil points recent rises trend
The trend still points to a larger deficit in coming months, especially given the recent rises in oil prices.
adding creation effects hurricane job point rather
We are now at the point where Hurricane Katrina's effects are adding to job creation rather than detracting from it.
case consumer dead spending stops suddenly turn
I don't think it's the case that we suddenly turn off the tap, and consumer spending stops dead in its tracks. It's more gradual.
deficit few widening within
Within a few months, the deficit will be widening to new records.