Michael Woolfolk
Michael Woolfolk
albeit economic positive report tip week
This was undeniably a positive report. Today's report could very well tip off a strong, albeit short, week for U.S. economic data.
buy economic investors less low positive rates risks willing
There's a very positive economic story of investors being more willing to take risks and buy equities and less willing to take low rates on bonds.
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The removal of the word 'measured' ... would be positive for the dollar as it suggests that the Fed is giving itself room to raise rates at a faster pace later this year.
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Given the recent spate of positive January data, CPI and durable goods are unlikely to disappoint. The USD is positioned to make new gains ... as favorable U.S. growth and interest rate differentials weigh on market sentiment.
door fed future hikes left open positive rate
The door will be left open for future rate hikes but the Fed will be increasingly data-dependent. That's positive for the U.S. dollar.
continued fully globally hike hikes interest march positive rate talk
The hike in March is fully priced in. The hike in May is over 80% priced in. There is already talk of continued hikes after that. Interest rate differentials globally are increasingly favoring the U.S. and it's positive for the dollar.
anecdotal due evidence floor flows greater impact level lighter lower market point seeing trading
Anecdotal evidence on the trading floor indicates things have been lighter than at any other point in the week. You are seeing some one-off flows that are making a greater impact in the market due to this lower level of liquidity and volume.
below continue data fed labor likely market raising rates remains services support view
February's data support the view that the U.S. labor market remains strong, particularly on the services side, with unemployment solidly below the 5% level. The Fed is likely to continue raising rates for the foreseeable future.
benign canadian dollar inflation
Benign inflation has weakened the Canadian dollar a little bit.
auto loss market reflect rest saying surprise
(The survey) was a big surprise this morning, but some of the market is saying that Detroit, because of loss of auto jobs, does not reflect the rest of the nation.
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Given recent Fed warnings over high levels of capacity utilization and low levels of unemployment, today's report increases the probability that the Fed will raise rates above 5.0% later this year. Last Friday's release of March unemployment further buttresses this view.
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I don't think it is possible for Iran to take money out of both the United States and Europe. There are just not sufficiently deep or liquid markets to place these sums of money.
market tape
But the tape will not be as important to the market as new data.
bond concerned decide forward market negative remove ultimately
What we are concerned about is that going forward they may decide to remove petrodollars and redirect them elsewhere. If they do, it is negative for the bond market and ultimately for the U.S. dollar.