Michael Englund
Michael Englund
ahead coming confidence effect higher june line numbers oil prices seeing shot
What we are seeing is that these numbers are coming in line with other confidence figures, which shot ahead in May and June with oil prices falling, and now with oil prices soaring, we are seeing the effect from higher prices at the pump.
almost chance effect inflation march numbers policy revision slow week wholesale
It's a slow week for releases, ... I think there's almost no chance the productivity revision or the wholesale inflation numbers will have much effect on the Fed's March policy decision.
damage december economy effect hurricane november positive production seeing start
Overall, the damage from the hurricane on the economy is limited, and by November and December we will start seeing the positive effect on production from rebuilding.
benefits consumers economy effect energy inflation interest low net producers rates result sector
The net effect on the economy is always positive. We have more consumers of energy than producers and the result is that the sector that benefits from low inflation and low interest rates comes out ahead.
economic estimate fluid growth information lowering situation
The story is all about oil. This is still a fluid situation but we have enough information to feel comfortable lowering our economic growth estimate even further.
auto catch june producers sales starting strong took tried
Producers tried to catch up with strong sales starting in June and July, but they can't keep up. Auto inventories took a big hit.
belief instead points report simply
Today's report simply reinforces the belief that it will be 25 points instead of 50 points.
economy inherent january jobs lead remains report risk signs suggest though view volatility
Though inherent volatility in the monthly jobs report may lead to a January dud, all signs suggest that the risk is for a whopper that would solidify the view that the economy remains solid.
alter combined data february january likely months robust unlikely
We will likely see payback in February for the outsized January surge. It is unlikely that the combined data for the two months alter the robust trajectory.
land until
We would not be able to land (in Stockholm) until 1:30 a.m. and that is not reasonable.
continue five remarkable six spending
There has been a remarkable surge in spending and it will probably continue for another five or six months.
confidence few hit impact increase sentiment weeks
It's the impact from Katrina, which in the first few weeks will be at a maximum, and it does increase our confidence that we will see a hit to the other sentiment indexes in September.
affect ambiguous caution concerned consumers economy increasing key report whether
Consumers are always concerned about the economy but the key is whether they are predisposed to increasing caution when it comes to spending. I think today's report demonstrates that the hurricanes had an ambiguous affect on spending.
august headline looks outside rest retail sales shown strength weakness
Even with the weakness in the headline number, the rest of the story looks good. June, July, August have all shown strength in retail sales outside of autos.